The Afghan maze !

 

Picture by : Yoshiaki Nagashima 

One of the most poignant short story; "kabuliwala"; about an Afghan is written by the nobel laureate  Tagore. The story of a little girl and an itinerant  almond seller from Kabul touches your heart any time you read it. The short story was later adapted for a movie. My eyes water immediately I hear a song from this movie;"Ay mere pyre watan....". "My dear lovely nation...". is simply the best patriotic song I have ever heard .  

Sadly the lovely nation of the Kabuli wala is in a bad shape. Without going into too much of its history the fact is that Afghanistan is not an ancient nation. It has been a conglomerate of different tribes for most of its history. The tribal alliances and the intra - tribe relations are an important part of governance of this region.  Add foreign invasion and foreign rule into the mix and we have what we have here; a diverse nation with no central authority.  It does not make things any easy that there are several language groups. Mainly Farsi and its dialects and Pashto and its dialects. Historically these language groups have been at  the opposite ends of the political divide for  several hundred  years.

Even in the best  of times whole of Afghanistan was not governable, although it must be said that during the Monarch Amanullah's and his dynasty's time and even later during Daud's time, who wrested power from the dynasty, things were relatively settled. A lot of social reforms and infusion of modern ideas took place. Although it is unthinkable today, it was not unusual on the streets of Kabul  to find women dressed in a western style skirt in late 1960's. The down slide for Afghanistan started on the fateful day Sardar Muhammad Daud destabilized the monarchy and his reign uncorked a can of worms of political anarchy. 

Nur Muhammed Taraki and his group, were communist  minded; when they staged a coup against Daud to gain power. That rang a lot of warning bells in Washington. It was another nail in the Afghan coffin. Taraki's party governed on the soviet model . It curtailed civil liberties and put a number of restrictions on overtly Islamic  way of life. Afghans did not like it a lot.  This was the era of cold war and USSR was supporting the communist Government in kabul. Inevitably "Rambo", had to intervene. The entry of USA was another major setback to Afghanistan, but no one cared about Afghans. USA needed to put one across USSR  so they created a monster and gave it an Islamic name. ISI of pakistan became the mid wife and  its wet nurse and we had " mujahideen". " Freedom fighters"!!! ISI had its own interests in mind and afghans were so expendable, it was a cake walk. Especially with easily available unlimited supply of Saudi money.

Sadly  for  Afghanistan they won !  Portents were clear when Nazibullah's beaten and broken body was hung from a lamp post as the first official act of the freedom fighters. Any way the new power structure did not last long and a civil war ensued  .  Pitting  Northern Alliance on one side Millions of refugees and hundreds of thousands  dead later ; "Taliban "; strode to power in 1996. A bunch of raving , rabid lunatics espousing ruthless;  extremist;  Wahhabi ideology  that had no room for any accommodation. It was their way or death! They brought untold miseries to hapless afghans and really really pushed them back into middle ages as the twenty first century dawned .Their major service to Afghanistan was the destruction of Bamiyan Buddha's. They all were fit to be shot against  a wall for just that act alone but more was to come. One  word for it,  9/11.

World would not have cared otherwise and least of all USA. They were happy to let Taliban and their puppet masters in ISI run the show when Taliban over played their hand. Another set of miseries got unleashed on the Afghans. On one hand they have USA sitting in their homes and on the other hand Taliban is no where close to being decimated. It has now shaped itself into many headed dragon with this name and that name. But surly the dragon has grown big and It is hiding in plain sight  right across the border in Pakistan. 

Where does it leave the Afghans? As the USA finally prepares to leave it is clear that the present Karjai government will not be able to withstand the whirlwind that is brewing. No amount of military training India might provide ; it will be inadequate to stem the tide. Short of sending Indian boots on the ground it can not be stopped and there is very slim chance of that happening. What is worse; no amount of  US coaxing will change  Pakistan's afghan policy. It is based on supporting Taliban and Al Quaida  and their proxies getting back in power in Kabul. Again  nothing short of  USA directly taking out  military targets inside of Pakistan will begin to show any impact . And even then it may be too little too late ! Any way there is a very remote chance of that happening.

A bloody  intra - afghan power struggle is more likely to happen. The present Government will fight for survival with some Indian training and  some US weaponry . It will not be enough. Northern Alliance will try to save their traditional citadels. I do not see them as saviours  of Kabul . I believe they will be stretched unless US and  other western powers step in with equipment and funds. But hey ! that is another problem . Funds is exactly what they do not have! In the short run I feel Pakistan will have its way. A large part of Afghanistan will fall back in the hands of ISI proxies.  A overwhelmingly Sunni, wahabi, pathan , extremist ;anti west ;anti India, anti Russia and  anti everything other that themselves and their kind kind of government will rule Kabul again.  Sadly I can not see Afghans coming together in some kind of positive political movement that will keep away Taliban.

And with that will begin the final end game in Afghanistan.  I feel that  in this final round , thanks  to their army, Pakistan will be suckered in so deeply and inextricably  in the quagmire that it will impossible to come out even if they want it. A lot of pieces will fly about. Unlike last time there are a lot more active players in the game this time .  Apart from original US and Russia ; covert and overt roles of Iran and India have  expanded hugely . It will be fool hardy to dismiss this new development. EU and UK  will continue as serious elements of the jigsaw. And then there is China. The biggest chess player of all time. What is quite amazing to me that most of them will find themselves ranged on one side albeit for their own interests. The trick will be not to get caught on the other side. The trouble for Afghans is far from over.  Dust will take a little while to settle. But in the end It has to be Afghans who will have to bear the responsibility of  forging a stable  representative political system. Only they can make the final move.