General Miscalculation !

To be a general is an extraordinarily arduous job.  Several  experienced and senior officers  have failed at it.  History records that during World War II,  Sixteen out of the 155 American officers who commanded Army divisions in combat were relieved for cause, along with at least five corps commanders. For every Marshall Gregory Zhukov and Napoleon there are many more that did not make the cut.  Military campaigns require meticulous planning; rigourous preparation; flawless execution; bravery and a highly disciplined & ethical personal conduct of the operation. Any deviation from these exacting norms has usually resulted in strong reverses in the field and even total failures; always blowing back on the leader.

Adolf Hitler commanded Nazi Germany to conquer large swathes of the continental Europe as well as chunks of Asia and  Africa.   His armies conquered France while holding off the combined might of the U.S., British and Russian forces during World War II. His armies  were masters of the successful military tactic; Blitzkrieg. That's as long as he was behaving as a military commander with a clear chain of command and delegation of authority to his generals in the field. Soon these victories got to his head and he decided to micromanage the war.  He simply ignored  his commanders and marched on Moscow with winter approaching. Hitler never expected that campaign to last as long as it did or the Red Army to provide the kind of resistance that it did. War  dragged into the severe winter months and Nazi war machine and men got trapped in the fierce bear hug of the old man Russian winter. Far away from their supply lines, wearing their spring uniforms and thin combat shoes; Nazi army's famous battle skills just froze out. Motivated by intense patriotism Red Army first stopped the Nazi march and then counter attacked; inflicting one reverse after another on the Germans. Russian march stopped only when they triumphantly entered Berlin and planted the red flag on the Brandenburg Gate .  Hitler single handedly managed to get Germany into this serious mess and despite  brilliant generals under his command , lost the war by overruling them. We all know how he ended. Defeated and dead  in a cold bunker ,with his brains blown out and  his country completely destroyed in the bargain. Just imagine if this Austrian corporal had been accepted into the art school as he had wanted to, he might not have joined the army in the first place and would never have got the chance to get promoted way beyond his station as Fuhrer. Hitler had an obvious talent for art so we might have seen him develop in to a decent artist instead of the worst villain in history. 

Every nation has had their share of good and bad commanders . Pakistan sadly has seen more than the usual "Jekyll and Hyde" personalities.  One reason could be that army has a larger than life role in their polity so it throws up more individuals to the top. As a result more bad apples come in the limelight with the army background as well . Pervez Musharaff is considered one of those apples. Admittedly he  got promoted out of turn to the post of the chief of staff by a crafty politician to serve his own political ends.  So some of the blame lies with Nawaz Sharief. What if Miyan sahib had  let normal seniority play its role ? But he did not. Whatever else Musharraf learned about war craft in the army , he definitely took Clausewitz's saying ," war is the continuation of politics by other means" to his heart. He is the one who single handedly brought Pakistan their latest military defeat - in Kargill. Badly planned, thinly disguised as a "mujahedin" action, shoddily executed and timidly fought, the general grossly over estimated his own capabilities in this campaign. What is worse that he not only kept the Pakistan Government in dark about what minefield he is stepping into  ; he kept in dark , his own commanders in the field  as well. Taking a big leaf right out of Hitler's Russian campaign playbook; he micro managed  the  movement and deployment of the attacking army units.   Things might have been salvageable had he got the enemy strengths and their response levels right. That was not to be. He miscalculated there  and got that estimate wrong too! By miles ! Indians responded with overwhelming force and vehemence. They deployed special forces; elite fighting units,  heavy field artillery and extensive air power against him.  Musharraf's armies were soon  running for cover. Abdicating and vacating  post after post. Thoroughly demoralized , totally defeated  and nursing their wounds; they had to leave behind their equipment and their dead for the enemy. It was a complete rout . Musharraf had to swallow his pride and go to his Political masters with his tail between his legs. Who in turn had to scamper around  Washington begging for a US mediation for a way out of the imbroglio. Whatever this comprehensive defeat did to the army morale; the campaign succeeded in wiping out the Northern Light Infantry divisions of the Pakistan army. This is the very campaign Musharraf is "proud" of.

And just as a post script, to get out of taking responsibility for his own follies, he also staged a coup against the same civil government which bailed him out.  That is another "feather" in his cap.  He "saved Pakistan", not realizing that had there not been people of his ilk, Pakistan would not need saving in the first place. While he was saving Pakistan for a decade or so , he believed in the mantra of "Enlightened Moderation". It sounded good to the western ear but nothing else came of it. Musharraf also claimed credit for the economy doing well during his regime; media getting a boost and surprisingly, for improved  relations with India. Really !  What he does not claim and knows nothing about is : who hid Osama bin laden? Who killed Benazir ? Who is using helicopter gunships on the baloch and how did Akbar Bugti die?  So much for his moderation and so much for his enlightenment! I guess he does not own a dictionary!

Eventually his time came up and he was forced to declare elections, primarily for being stupid enough to pick a fight with chief Justice. He badly miscalculated.  Reportedly he either colluded to have Benazir Bhutto killed , or looked the other way. All of his calculations did not help him or the political forces he backed win the mandate. Ironically and expectedly, riding on the sympathy vote Benazir's husband won ! Miscalculating Musharraf had to send himself away in exile for several years. The allure of power  is magnetic though. He kept on planning his return to Pakistan and eventual rise to power again. True to his form he over imagined and under planned. Maybe this time  round his calculations were based on his Facebook friend's comments and likes. Or maybe he consulted a crystal ball. All we know  is that  he miscalculated and  when he landed back instead of the teeming sea of humanity he had dreamed about ;charitable estimates put the number of his greeters to a couple of hundreds .

His spook friends in the army he used to head, had advised him not to return. They told him to stay put in the salubrious foreign climes ; enjoy the fruits of his "service to Pakistan", and live the well provided for , ultra rich life of a  retired Pakistani general.  Why did they even bother? Did they not know "miscalculation" is general's middle name?  Although in his latest avatar Musharraf has totally abandoned enlightened moderation. Not even for name sake. Now he is the chief of a version of Muslim league. Maybe it is the rightist version, maybe it is the Islamist , maybe it is something else. Nobody is quite sure. Trouble with that  is that  enough members do not exist for this party and the sample size is miniscule. People are unable to form any definite opinion about them. The party is a serious joke,so is its leader.  

Musharraf  forgot that he was a commando a long time ago. Today he is an over the hill "has been". He forgot that he is unable to  para drop on the enemy camp, whip out  his Heckler & Koch  and shoot down everyone in sight ! Not any more! After his return he is being tied up in so many legal tangles that it will be major miracle if he escapes unmolested.  Musharraf has already been denied the permission to be a candidate in the elections, so there go his political ambitions up in smoke. In addition , his various bails have been cancelled in serious cases like Benazir murder  . He is facing  treason charges for subverting the constitution and staging a coup. He is in serious trouble and is technically already in jail. It is beyond belief that the general failed to see this coming during his campaign preparation! Anyway he will get ample free time in jail, during which he should read Sun Tzu's 'Art of War'. It may not moderate his risks but will surely enlighten him. The ancient Chinese Military treatise says," If you know the enemy & know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you'll also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you'll succumb in every battle". The above passage might have been written with him in mind.

Although the rumour in the street is that Khaki's are planning a rescue of their erstwhile chief, to avoid all those tumbling disclosures in the court singeing the army. If the street talk is to be believed, as soon as the elections are over Musharraf will be  provided bail to visit his supposedly ailing mother  who lives in his mansion in the middle east. Reportedly a middle eastern kingdom has kept a jet at  Musharraf's  disposal and will immediately whisk him away from the hangman's noose.  Hopefully never to be seen again in public. Everyone can then take a sigh of relief  and carry on with their lives! Sounds like a plan! Fear however is that  the miscalculating general will somehow manage to botch that  simple an operation too!  Well he can . He surely is capable.