आख़िर क्यों ? Akhir Kyon ? ( Why, Why ?)

AI generated Image of a baby using Bing

 

जिन्दगी  का अपनी , तमाशा देखते हो क्यों ?

राब्तों से , सोहबतों से भागते हो क्यों ?

 

मायूसियों का खुद एक खज़ाना है जिंदगी ,

अपनी शिकस्तों  का सिला फिर मांगते हो क्यों ? 

माथे पे त्योरियां हमे अच्छी नहीं लगती,

अपनी  मुस्कानो  को हम  से छीनते हो क्यों ? 

 

 लबों से कुछ कहो; चाहे कुछ भी हमे कहो , 

बस निग़ाहों से सख्त सवाल पूछते हो क्यों ?

 

लाते  कहाँ से हो  तुम इतने शोर की चुप्पी ?

कुछ लफ्ज़ खर्चने में बला  झिझकते ही हो क्यों ?

 

यूँ शुक्र है कि रूख पे तुम्हारे तिल ही नहीं है ,

गालों के *हिलकोरे का अज़ाब कम मानते हो क्यों ?

 

यूँ दूर से दीदार से महरूम क्या हुए ,

 ख्वाबों में भी विसाल से पलटते ही हो क्यों ?

 

मुँह फेरने की आदत ने तुम्हारी ,  बेचैन कर दिया ,

हामी नहीं भरी फिर ना कहने से बचते फिरते हो क्यों ? 

*हिलकोरे (डिम्पल , गाल का गड्डा  )

 

Text in Roman follows

 

Jindgi ka apni, tamasha dekhte ho kyon ?

Rabton se , sohbaton se bhagte ho kyon ?

 

Mausiyoon ka khud aik khazana hai jindgi ,

Apni shikaston ka sila fir mangte ho kyon ? 

Mathe pe tyoriyan hume acchi nahi lagti,

Apni muskano ko himse chhente ho kyon ? 

 

Labon se kuch kaho; chahe kuch bhi hume kaho , 

Bus nigahon se sakht sawal poochte ho kyon ?

 

Latey kahan se ho tum itne shor ki chuupi ?

Kuch lafz kharchane me bala jijhakte he ho kyon?

 

Yun shukr hai ki rukh pe tumhare til hi nahi hai ,

Galon ke *hilkoray ka azab kum mantey ho kyon ?

 

Yoon door se didar se mahroom kya huay ,

Khwabon me bhi visal se palattey hi ho kyon ?

 

Muh ferne ki adat ne tumhari,  Bechain kar diya ,

Hami nahi bhari fir na kehne se bachte firte ho kyon ?

 

*hilkoray(dimple)

 

Eleventh Province !

 

                    Proposed Flag of U.N.A.  Union of North America

 Let us face it ; subtlety is not Donald Trump's strong suite and with him in the white house for the next four years Canada has a challenge on hand with our eleventh province! Apparently Trump's constant barbs about Canada becoming the fifty first state of the USA are a real  thing. At least Justin Trudeau thinks so. Sadly intelligence  never figured on the small list of Trudeau's qualifications. In my opinion Trump was emboldened to make his assertions because "governor Justin" is such a pitiable lightweight! 

It is very amusing but the fact is that 89% of entire land in Canada is currently owned by the crown. Yes the very same king.... of England !  Canadian citizens are "faithful and bear true allegiance to His Majesty King George the Sixth, His Heirs and Successors". You can split the hair this way or that way but the fact is that like the American president the English King is not "Canadian" ; never was & never will be ! Canada has always had a compromised sovereignty.

Canada is established on annexed lands belonging to the native population. Force, deceit violence, cruel, illegitimate,oppressive, con and bribery  are the words that easily come to mind. These real Canadians are hidden in reservations and marginalized. I have first hand experience and  found them generally in poor economic and social conditions with hardly any political clout. Under represented in academia, media, industry, government and every power wielding organ; they were reluctant Canadians then and they are helpless Canadians now! 

Let us address the elephant in the room - Quebec! Quebec voters have twice rejected sovereignty, in 1980 by 60-40 but in 1995 by barely a percentage point. Canada has kept them interested by equalization payments; something a lot of people see as bribes.For the year 2025/26 according to government of Canada website ;Quebec will receive C$ 29.3 billion from the federal kitty. Just compare that with C$1.0 billion for New Found land and C$ 977 million for PEI. Then there are language laws and it is an open secret that Quebec has cornered a lions share of federal jobs that tend to be french imperative. Putting all other Canadians at a permanent disadvantage. Just watch how they are shredding Mike Carney to bits because his french language skills are sketchy even though he is a nobody yet.

All this molly coddling is not enough though! Seemingly there is a strong possibility of another Quebec referendum to secede from Canada soon.  Three western Provinces  Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan have long complained about shouldering Canada's fiscal burden and net outflow to eastern Canada. Add that to the federal policy stumbling blocs for oil/gas industry and opposition to new pipelines and they have lent a very keen ear to the 51st state idea. There is some serious talk of even leaving  rest of the Canada behind.

I will not dwell upon the first generation Canadians and the legal immigrants. They have been mostly treated harshly and to their chagrin have found Canada  to be not exactly  as advertised. A lot of them would vote with their feet if they could. Most stay because their bridges are burnt ! Remember how a family was found frozen dead trying to cross into USA from Canada. What do they know that rest ignore? If only Canada was such a promised land!  Asylum seekers of various kind and other such groups have a sweet spot for Canada for lax border controls;  doles and freebies it provides. Stop those cheques and see  for yourself !

Who then is opposed to the 51st state idea ? My children for a start ! Thank God! Where would the world be without the energy, hope, brilliance and idealism of the young. Honestly I have not really conducted any survey but my limited anecdotal evidence tells me that it is the powerful that see the danger of their powers declining or even vanishing entirely if such a calamity ever took place. Again based on my limited sample size the opinion is divided down the middle. Even in the most Canada friendly province of Ontario. There is of course a clear distinction between opinions of haves and have not's. Opinion is also informed by race and ethnicity. I would however consider them all equal Canadians but do recognize the severally widening fault lines and undercurrents of serious discontent. it will have an impact on Canadian Nationhood and acceptance rate of  51st state proposals.

Where do we go from here? Suggestions so far have ranged from asinine to juvenile petulance. From banning Donald Trump from entering Canada and Revoking Elon Musk's citizenship to a proposal for Canada to join CANZUK  as a bulwark against USA. A union of Canada with UK , Australia and New Zealand. Do not laugh;really!  These people would do well by looking at a geographical map of the world and revisiting a page from the history books titled "Brexit"!

 First thing we need is a government. Trudeau government is gasping for breath in ICU and sooner we pull the plug sooner we can start building a response to the crisis. Trudeau's personal political equity is in negative and he is deservedly treated with complete disdain on the world stage. He can not provide leadership and is just scraping by, wasting precious time. Provincial Premiers  have taken various stands. Notably Ontario and Alberta among them. In my view It is just chest thumping  that is more for domestic consumption than anything else. Foreign policy is too serious a matter to be left to local political considerations. I would also discourage dealing with these matters on a province by province  basis. This totally weakens the idea of Canada.

What we can do is understand US concerns. We can see that flow of drugs and illegal migration is hurtful. We can try to understand that we can not wait till 2030 to reach our goal of 2% defence spending and still ride the NATO bus. Usually there is always more left unsaid between the lines that are said and diplomacy is required to address those. Ours is rather questionable, if it is not entirely moribund!

I would rather give a counter offer to president Trump ! Canada is in North America. Not in Europe, not in Australia and certainly not another island next to British shores. Without ruffling their feathers and diminishing existing relationships it is possible to caliberate Canada's relationship with the USA. After all Canada is part of commonwealth and US is not. Europe is together in EU and Canada is excluded from it for obvious reasons.

 

I think Canada and US should form a North American union taking some learning from The EU to see what works and what does not work. I would start with making a common currency and common border controls to begin with. That would completely integrate the economies, remove internal barriers for goods,  services and human resource. This ought to make tariffs obsolete, cut cost; reduce bureaucracy and management of security concerns efficient. It will also allow businesses to expand, use resources optimally and respond better to international economic challenges. It will bring down prices of everything from gas to housing; leading to a better quality of life and economic prosperity for the citizens of both nations. We must Use shared history, Shared values and a shared neighbourhood to our advantage.Both countries can keep their political systems and internal structure as they want. We can be the  51st state as long as US becomes our 11th province. Make North America great !

 

I know it is not so simple but think about it !

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Clever Mouse !

 Clever Mouse! चालाक चूहा !

 

"Be a mouse again" Pen and ink  on paper 14cm X 22cm  Feb.2025. by  Ashutosh Kaul 

Politicians do not come with a lot of recommendations. Typically they are self serving with very flexible scruples and moral values. They make deals all the time; not very transparent or lawful at that. Unfortunately they are part of the system of governance and we can not avoid them altogether. We however can select individuals with integrity, honesty and empathy for public welfare.

Back in 2012 Delhi saw a thin ,emaciated , educated and a very relatable individual come to fore. Arvind Kejriwal was an engineer from  the prestigious Indian Institute of Technology;had worked for the Revenue service and was campaigning against corruption in public life. People took to him like a duck to water! His stated goal was to set up a "lekhpal"; a sort of public commissioner that would ensure probity. He emphasized that he will not be contesting any elections and has no political ambitions ! Public had visions of an altruistic Mahatma Gandhi that has come back to life!

He soon junked that 'absurd' idea  and formed a political party; parting ways with his old mentor Anna Hazare and several other distinguished colleagues of the anti corruption movement. Good thing was that he swore an oath upon his children that he will never support that abysmally corrupt congress party nor will he ever take their support in forming the government. Come election and a hung verdict saw him form the government in Delhi province with the support of....... congress of course!

His personal integrity was still largely intact. Then he came up with  his famous "Delhi" model of governance. This was largely based on taxpayer borne freebies to select voting blocks that ensured electoral majority for himself. It succeeded beyond success and in the next election in 2015 he decimated the opposition.Winning 67 seats out of 70. This is the moment his ambitions got ahead of himself. He considered himself the centre of all that is good in this world and  projected himself for the top job in the country - Prime minister's office. He did contest against the Prime minister in a federal election and.... lost. In the process he shook hands with all kinds and took funds from entities inimical to the country. Anyone in his own party that pointed out these serious digressions from their party's stated goals was unceremoniously booted out. Even his closest associates and founding members of the party were shown the door. Not one or two; dozens had to leave ! He had the reigns of Delhi government though and controlled one of the largest provincial budgets in India.

Money is a great glue.and people still flocked to him. He took his party national and fought various other provincial elections with limited success. One province where he got a lot more purchase was Punjab where he was able to win a majority. Apparently to fund his expansion and huge election costs he accepted funds from dubious sources as well as created a 10 million dollar liquor licensing scam in Delhi.You may get drinking water in Delhi or not but you are never far from a liquor shop. Every street corner has one. Buy One Get One free scheme became common. He was later jailed and prosecuted for this corrupt mess. Currently he is out on bail in this case and professes complete innocence of any wrong doing..

In the meantime another election rolled in and on the back of his freebie strategy he steam rolled the opposition again. He lost a little bit but 62 out of 70 total seats is still a stupendous number! The fellow carried on his merry way. He turned dictatorial, confrontational and very economical with facts. Convinced that he is the next prime minister, he took one bad decision after another; turned his back on one associate after another and went back upon every word  he ever uttered publicly.

His classic assertion  that he does not want trappings of power went out of window when he got 4 heritage buildings torn down to make his 40,000 sq. ft official residence. A palace on 7 acres of land. Anyone that knows Delhi will know that 7 acres of prime residential land there would cost an unbelievably astronomical sum. On top of this he spent 8 times the allocated budget by indulging in creative accounting by breaking down jobs into smaller amounts. That  fell  just a little short of the threshold requiring oversight by the governors office !

Change does not happen overnight, things simmer around for a long time but  arrogant narcissists have their heads so far up their own asses that they fail to see it.  He truly believed that voters are very angry with authorities because he was wrongfully jailed ! In fact he boldly asserted that he will become the premier again only when people vote him in again; no matter the judicial decision in his favour. He was so certain of his victory that he asserted that no body can defeat him in this life! 

Well elections rolled in recently and people gave their verdict and declared him to be corrupt. Fellow dropped 10% support. Enough for him to loose his own seat as well as the seats of every  co accused of corruption in his cabinet. Voter condemnation was quite emphatic.In fact he lost 40 out of 62 seats he originally held. He could not get elected even as a simple member of the legislature , much less its premier ! Talk of over estimation !  Like the classic story the mouse has come a full circle to being a mouse again. This time with his tail between his legs!

He still has about 40% of the vote share in Delhi so can he cover lost ground? It depends! Without power and money that comes with it, it will be hard to keep his flock together. Especially since he does not have any largesse to dole out. I see a significant erosion in his party cadre base as well as   bolting of his second rung leaders. Punjab where his party is in power will be a difficult platform to mount a counter offensive from. He is an outsider there and dictatorial by temperament. Sadly for him Punjab typically does not take orders that well !

According to reports he is currently facing about 50 various criminal cases, from plain lying  to big time financial corruption. He is currently on conditional bail In liquor scam case. Bail specifically granted in light of elections.Elections are over and lost! His defence was being financed by Delhi tax payers. How is he going to pay for his defence now and what kind of time can he spare for politics after the full time job of trying to keep himself out of prison ? Most of his inner coterie is also looking at some quality jail time.

Kejriwal is in worse position today as compared to when he started out in 2012. All he has to show for the last 13 years is a personal image in tatters. I would not hold my breath for a swift recovery !

The Canadian Plumber !

 

The Canadian Plumber !

CIA has had many successes to its credit. One that really stands out is its creation of "Taliban". A rabidly fanatic, motivated Islamic religious extremist group fully trained, funded and equipped by the US. Undoubtedly they were instrumental in the demise of Soviet Russia. We all know how that actually panned out in the long run. Apart from the world trade centre mayhem that literally changed the world as we knew it ;we can safely hang on it the pitiable condition of women in Afghanistan; military dictatorship and namesake democracy in Pakistan; massive influx of drugs and automatic weapons in the region; terrorism and holocaust of Kashmir's Hindus in India; strengthening of mullahcracy and fundamentalism in Iran and  destabilization of the entire middle east to name just a few. This support to Taliban has cast an ominously dark shadow on the world events and  I can not point to a single encouraging sign readily.

Break up of the soviet union has not made Europe or the western world any safer. Breakaway republics have pushed the boundaries of the Russian heartland inwards that makes them less secure in the Russian eyes giving rise to new conflicts and jostling for strategic advantage.    We recently witnessed an ICBM fired in anger, flying in the Ukrainian sky. Things could become a lot worse with several European cities within range.Of course neither is Israel any closer to avoiding a precarious existence. All of this is a going concern for the world and it goes without saying that it is costing dearly to avoid a major catastrophe. If US could turn the clock back I am certain knowing what they know now ,They would play a different card than Taliban! Using terrorism as statecraft has very limited use and a definite blow back that can be hard to absorb.

What  can Canada learn from the past? Air India flight 182 was bombed by the Canadian khalistani terrorists in 1985. It killed 268 Canadian, 27 British and 22 Indian nationals. If there is one single moment in history that was the page turner ; this was it. Canada needed to wake up and get cracking ! Sadly  Canada dropped the ball entirely. A few arrests were made  halfheartedly and One , repeat one single individual was convicted of manslaughter who was let out after a few years. This is for the biggest mass murder in the Canadian history and the most lethal act of aviation terrorism in the world at that time since World trade centre in New York had not happened yet !

Incompetence and apathy are very mild words. This is what Treason looks like in my books.

How I wish I could forewarn and tell them that ignoring and making light of this incident will have bad consequences for Canada, only it has already happened. If we dial forward to the present times we have recently seen attacks on a Hindu temple by Khalistan goons ; we have seen them proudly celebrating in the streets of Canada  murder of an elected women prime minister with complete immunity. We have seen hordes rioting in support of Hamas terrorists  and threatening Jewish entities. We have seen excuses for these act provided by people in power.  Extremists just love Canada! How in hell have these elements emboldened themselves? Canada has become a bad joke!

Canada is in north America. This can not change. Her natural alliance and interests lie with USA. Despite who is in office the facts are that Canada's external policy can not be far removed from the US. That means Canada will have an adversarial relation with Russia and will be in direct confrontation with China for the foreseeable future. That is 1/2 of the world against Canada. How intelligent was it to pick a reckless fight with a rising economic power and a democracy-India?  That made it 3/4th of the world! It may be post colonial arrogance or sheer stupidity;likely both in equal measure. Especially when you either do not have proof or can not provide proof in the murder of one Canadian plumber who actually entered the country on false documents and was running from the law with a red corner notice since 2014. A simple search on the internet will show his picture with assault weapons.  A model Canadian plumber or a typical khalistani extremist? It kind of boggles the mind that Canada shielded him by putting him on a no fly list; effectively stalling his extradition!  Political compulsions are no justification for white washing the facts . How did his citizenship get approved in the first place?

 There has been some scaling back recently and a recent shooting of another Canadian plumber; successor of the murdered plumber was not blamed on the Indian prime minister. That is real progress from the previous Canadian actions ! I was amused to see in the media how people got offended by Canada getting equated with Mexico with reference to the Chinese goods and illegals  entering the United states. This offence will look like high praise because Canada is this close  to being equated with Pakistan with reference to giving shelter , legitimacy and political space to extremism.  Be aware it is a slippery path direct to a bottomless pit.

 

 Christmas Dinner !

"Religion is poison! Protect your children!" reads Soviet poster; with the church on the child's left, and the school on her right. (1930)

 Faith is  integral to religion although it can thrive without it as well. Agnosticism - absence of all  faith is actually another faith. We all believe in something or the other. Problem only arises when faith plays second fiddle to organized religion,  because then rituals take precedence and everyone believes they have a patent on the correct path. That has always generated conflict and always will.

Soviets tried to get rid of faith by banning religion but only managed to replace God by State. Kind of why pray to God when you can pray to the State! Long time ago I was in Soviet Russia and was surprised to see a very well attended  church Sunday service despite the obvious KGB types taking pictures and noting down details of the attendees. Not all of them were old babushka's either! It was Clear that soviet war on faith was not going very well.

It is safe to assume that faith makes one mentally strong, gives one a purpose and a focus. It ought to make one a better human and it does too ; except when religion interferes ! According to genetic studies Jews and Palestinians are closer to each other than the Jews are to their host countries. I know I am oversimplifying a complex, multifaceted issue but there should be no reason for them to be anything but friends! You do not need me to tell you that Jews are  facing a running war of extinction and dishing out more grief than they are getting in return. Religion is a huge factor in that violent imbroglio and according to some analysts it is the only factor .

Even within the Islamic nations there is a clear Shia / Sunni divide. Saudi Arabia and Iran have not seen eye to eye for about 1000 years. First gulf war between Iraq and Iran raged on for eight years from 1980 to1988. In comparison Second world war between the years 1939 to1945 was shorter.  About one million Roma and six million Jews were massacred during the second world war by a misplaced sense of false Nazi superiority that  had a large dollop of religious element embedded in.

Nobody likes to talk about it any more but a communist china occupied by force a Buddhist Tibet  on very flimsy grounds in 1950's. Just because some ancient Chinese dynasty had ruled over it. Weird logic indeed! By the same logic Britain can claim entire USA/ Canada and half of the rest of the world!   Unkindest cut is that the Chinese occupation of Tibet has been normalized by an acquiescing world. It is another matter that the same Communist regime is now brutalizing Uighur a Muslim group for being Muslim ! 

Ireland's division into a protestant north and a catholic south with the violence it precipitated is rather well documented. A semblance of peace and acceptance of status quo was only achieved in late nineties after decades of serious disturbances.The rumblings for reunification are still simmering under the surface.

Pakistani's and Indians are exactly the same people. With exactly the same DNA, ancestors, history and family names. You would not know it though If I did not tell you. First the country got divided on religious grounds and then they promptly went to war. Several times in fact; over the region of Kashmir. All because Kashmir has more Muslims ! 

Al Qaeda terrorists that flew a plane full of passengers into the world trade centre NYC, killing thousands of innocents 23 years ago actually changed the entire world for ever. There were pointers before that eventful day 39 years ago when khalistani terrorists detonated a bomb mid flight killing 329 mostly Canadian passengers onboard the aircraft. Poor victims that had absolutely nothing to do with whatever grievance these vile perpetrators had. Religious frenzy and fanaticism has nothing  to do with piety and faith.

Of course there are wars that have reasons other than religion, like the Russian - Ukrainian war. According to a census 17% of the entire population of Ukraine is Russian and nearly 2 million Russian residents identify themselves as Ukrainian. The data does predate the current war but you can imagine how absurdly silly and mindless these wars are.

There is this concept of six degrees of separation, meaning all people  are six or fewer social connections away from each other and we are all related! Then there is an ancient Indian philosophy Of "Vasudev Kutumbakam"; meaning "All world is one family". 

Talking about family think of a Christmas dinner where the entire clan gets together. Does every body agree with everybody else? Are there no tantrums , no drama , no arguments? Are there no imagined or real past hurts that come to fore?  All of the above happens but really how achingly beautiful it is when everyone does sit down and  enjoy together whatever the table has on offer! Think about it!

Karl Marx did say that religion is the opium of the people. Soviets were off the mark about many things but they were spot on about religion being 'poison'. Faith on the other hand is completely another matter altogether. Let us never confuse the two!

 

 

Seize The day!

 

Congress is a political party with a long history. It is without argument that they have had the most number of illustrious and politically important  personalities in history. They have also held power several times after independence. Actually they have formed government for the longest time as compared to any other political party. 

 

Lately however they have lost one election after another and increasingly failed at the hustings in the last two  consecutive polls. There are several reasons for it , but we are not going into that analysis today. We will only focus on one area.

India is a parliamentary democracy , however all the recent elections have been about personalities rather than policies. Congress's illogical infatuation with the Gandhi family has ensured that a "Gandhi" enters the ring  on their behalf. Unfortunately for them their fighter has so far always flattered to deceive. He is under prepared, inexperienced, lacks intellect and suffers massive public perception issues. obviously the results for the hallowed party have been disastrous to say the least. As soon as you decide that they have finally bottomed out, they dive lower and then lower again!

 

Personally I do not consider their political marginalization a good thing. I would prefer an even contest where the voters have at least two good choices if not more. A potent opposition is as important as an empowered government. In an ideal world all elections would be about policies and governance records. You do not need me to tell you that we  live in an imperfect world and an election is round the corner too! What on earth can congress do ?

Congress has never found the courage to show a mirror to the Gandhi family. However the  election Gods are blessing them this time! I am serious! Thanks to the judiciary Rahul Gandhi is no longer a member of the parliament and if congress men sincerely pray very hard, he will not be able to contest elections for the next eight years. Heaven's be praised; that is exactly what the doctor ordered for a complete recovery. This is a windfall of gargantuan proportions! Congress can finally find a deserving candidate to take the field in '24. They are not short on talent either. They may still not breach the defences but if they seize the day they will live to fight again in a stronger and better position.

My nightmare is that a spineless congress will give in to their death wish; push Mrs. Vadra forward, destroying this God sent opportunity and finally burying the party forever. That will only make one Mr. Kejriwal very pleased. Now that is terribly terrifying indeed! Isn't it?

 

Taliban- Old wine , New bottle!

 

Taliban are back! That is if you believe they had ever gone away in the first place. They are who they are and it is simply futile to expect them to have changed in the intervening years that American forces were keeping them in check. US policy of first creating and supporting Taliban against USSR to failing in delivering them a decisive defeat; is quite another discussion altogether.

 

For now we will focus on what we can expect now. Firstly let us look at some comforting thoughts.Back in the heydays of Taliban, they were supported by almost the entire 57 Islamic countries including the very powerful and rich Saudi Arab. They had access to funds, technology, communications and state of art military equipment. Who can forget their use of heavy field guns to destroy massive Bamiyan Buddha world heritage site. Things in the world politics are no longer same. 9/11 has changed American thinking forever. House of Saud is shaky and power has shifted to the crown prince MBS. He has his own compulsions and plans that will find accommodating Taliban very very difficult. Turkey  other Islamic nations also will find it tough to provide Taliban anything more than a sound bite hard to sustain.

 

Iran, the other theocracy has had an uneasy relationship with Taliban. They are happy at US exit from the area but wary of a resurgent Taliban. Iran is not looking for trouble but is not going to give Taliban a free pass either. China has major plans for its economic corridors that dot the areas impacted by these reemerging forces. Moreover China is worried sick about the fallout of Islamic extremist forces getting control right next door to its suppressed Muslim Uighur population. China is completely untrustworthy but unlikely to put all its eggs in the Taliban basket.

 

USSR is no more. Russia however is not exactly a lightweight pushover! She has a  permanent and continuing interest in  her former Asian republics. Under Putin Russia will aggressively defend her turf.They are big players in the area and Taliban are already trying to keep  them in good humour. It will have a calming influence. 

 

So what of the bad boy in the neighbourhood - Pakistan? They are in an unenviable bind if you ask me! On one hand they are licking their chops and salivating at their mouths at the very thoughts of their handpicked boys coming to power in Afghanistan; on the other hand they are shaking in their boots at what it means for their society in terms of drugs, crime and security. Pakistan has already a black mark against them in the bin laden case. Any more monkey business will land them in a very serious hot soup. Their neck is already under the FATF guillotine.Then there is India which has made deep inroads in the Afghan polity by providing extensive infrastructural  help by building  Hospitals, Dams, parliament etc.. They have rather bad history with Taliban but Taliban realizes the salubrious impact such altruistic projects have had on Afghan society. How much of this goodwill will hold is not very clear. Active diplomacy is needed to tell them of Indian Red lines and the fact that It is not the same India of Kandahar hijack days.

 

Afghanistan has a government that can justifiably be said to be broad based. Hamid karzai and now Ashraf Ghani has tried to include different sections in the governance that gives them local and international acceptability. The government also commands about 300000 trained troops. If and it is a big if, Taliban numbering between 50-75,000 do not get any external support and the Afghan national government does; how are they toppling the government?

That does not mean that they can not. It also means that Taliban has immense capacity to cause severe multi level stress on the governance and the security situation.What is important in this situation is to realize that Taliban are Afghan too. It is imperative to engage them across a table or you will be engaging them in a door to door battle. Secondly with Foreign forces leaving the Afghan soil, there is no 'enemy' left. Taliban have absolutely no reason to resort to violence and force their point of view. Let Afghans vote and decide what shape the nation's government will take. 

It is Taliban 2.0. Same Islamic supremacist, misogynistic , medieval ideology  albeit without access to stinger missiles and heavy artillery. They will have a different approach to grabbing power. it is up to us to ensure that Taliban are coaxed back into 21st century rather than they plunging the whole  world back to sixth!