Hope is a great catalyst. It has spurred gigantic efforts and decisive actions on part of the individuals as well as societies. It can be a heartless mirage too. Specially when one relies only on hope without taking into account all the hard facts readily available for the asking. It goes without saying that one good deed has to be followed with another before great hopes can be transformed into great results.
Massive expectations have taken a hold of Pakistan after the recent Elections to the national assembly. Hope however is hanging in the air by the proverbial thread - one maverick named Imran Khan. Depending on the source of information you believe ; he is currently elected or selected Prime Minister in waiting. Just for the record his party won the largest number of constituencies nationally but did not win a majority. He has 116 seats in a house of 272. I do not expect that to be a hindrance though in the government forming. So he is going to be the PM in a week or so.
So let us look at the positives in this development. Firstly it is the second back to back transfer of power to a civilian government through ballot. Howsoever faulty , non transparent and partial this process has been ; it is still creditable that an election took place in a country that has seen military dictatorships for the most part of its 70 odd years of existence.
It is a bit of a back handed compliment but despite an obvious doctoring of the pitch in favour of Imran; putting pressure on media to be selective in coverage ; leveraging the judiciary to be selective in taking on the corruption of his rivals only and clear manipulation if not naked intimidation of voters ; all the charges levelled by other parties and partly endorsed by independent international observers; the electorate deserves kudos for managing to hand Imran a drawn match ! If that will not keep him on his toes , nothing will.
First past the post system of elections ensured that none of the most virulent of Islamic terrorist proxies like Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek were elected. That's good news! Although one has to realize that they have polled thousands of votes in pretty much every seat they contested and several of their ideological brothers contesting jointly on other party tickets like Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) have actually won over a dozen seats . That is food for a very serious thought.
PML (N) did not get wiped out as was written in the pre poll script. Nawaz Sharief is not a spent force yet. Bilawal Bhutto came out of the shadows of his father and ran a creditable campaign ; although he has some ways to go .Don't know if it is good but MQM has been emasculated and its meagre 6 seats reflect the divided fratricidal house it has become. PTI has given PML (N) a run for its money even in the Punjab assembly; running neck to neck.
What can we expect from Prime minister Khan ? To put first things first he has to cobble a majority in the assembly and will have to immediately start making deals and compromises to ensure that smaller parties and independents support him to reach the halfway mark of which he is 20 odd short. That it can be achieved without forgoing some of the high principles; platform he marketed himself from and bursting of some balloons of hope and change for good is not doubtful,it is impossible.
It is all about economy as they say. By all reckonings Pakistan's economic situation is far from robust. The new government will have to immediately find money- a lot of money. Some reports suggest US $ 3 billion are required yesterday, just to repay first installment of their loan. They can default and sink deeper into the crisis making recovery more difficult or they can .... what can they do ? No body knows. Specially having already made the grey list of FATF they are staring at a financial abyss. This will need Imran Khan's complete attention for a very long time.
Pakistan's honeymoon with US is over. Or is it ? New PM has to deal with this relationship that has fractured along every possible fault line , mostly to Pakistan's disadvantage. Unfortunately for Imran he has made his position a little difficult to retrieve by using increasingly harsh and confrontationist language against US in general and president Trump in particular. He will need every diplomatic stratagem at his command to deal with this mess. He has nothing to offer and pretty much zero bargaining chips at hand unless he wants to use the Afghanistan lever again. This strategy is fraught with so many dangers that it should not even be on the table; but you never know with Pakistan.
The much touted CPEC has been marketed as manna from heavens. Maybe it is as good as advertised however observers within Pakistan and outside have pointed out that currently it seems to be a one way street. Everything is flowing towards China; not unlike east India company of yore. A lot of projects are stalled; a lot are stopped and a lot are only on paper. Corruption; lack of funds and downright inefficiency is rampant. The social costs of CPEC are also going up. Recently there was a flare up where Chinese workers beat up local police for not being allowed to visit a whorehouse. Pakistani friends have expressed dismay in private conversations at the number of Chinese economic immigrants streaming into their cities and neighbourhoods stretching and straining their social structure. CPEC will need a lot of careful handling. Is Imran quite up to it ?
Then there is that elephant in the room - India ! Not surprisingly a little hope blossomed in India too. After all Imran's cricketing credentials are potent aphrodisiacs ! A lot of people are not so convinced though. Having observed Imran Khan over the years and his conveniently evolving religiosity ; looking at how and what he accomplished in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during his party's tenure; and how he fought this election and who all fought in his corner; I am tilted towards his ex wife Reham Khan's assessment. He will say one thing if it serves his purpose but may carry out quite the opposite as per need. Sort of a reverse swing !
He could have avoided in his post poll address but he did not. The 'K' word that is ! He was addressing the Khaki generals actually not the people of Pakistan and definitely not India. Reminding them that he is their man and their interests are safe with him. What he actually meant was" please go provide firm guidance like only the Pakistan army can to some newly elected members so they support me". India can afford to let it pass although it should be clear now that Imran has no plans ; no will and no need to change anything with regards to India. He may mouth some feel good words from time to time but he will not mean them . Status quo is his best friend to stay in the saddle and he is smart enough to know this.
Imran Ahmad Khan Niazi will toe the military establishment's line is a given. I do not expect any miracle from him over the heads of GHQ Rawalpindi. My only fear is that given his proclivities ; his immodest righteousness and his lofty sense of entitlement; he may try to out general the general's themselves. And in that case he might do well to remember another Niazi . Lieutenant-general Amir Abdullah Khan Niazi who became governor of east Pakistan for two full days that ended rather ignominiously.
Best wishes for a new Innings captain. Remember the world is watching and it is not convinced. Not yet!
