Saturday, January 24, 2026

The Day That Was!

Doodle by Ashutosh Kaul. Jan' 2026 
168mm X 213mm . Sketch Pen on paper
 
I called home the other day and spoke to my father. For close to half a century I have discussed , argued and even wildly disagreed with him  regularly on every subject under the sun. In my home we can do that without any repercussions. My father is vastly knowledgeable, brilliant, sharp and a gentleman. This time round though he asked me if I am calling him from Delhi or from out of town. Thing is I live abroad and  I was home five months back. It was completely out of character for him  to say that. It hit me like a sledge hammer. His mental cage has shrunk  dramatically in the interval! We haltingly managed a small discussion on the current political affairs. Not very sure what's going on. I will have to go see about it, won't I ? A short trip to Delhi is on !

He is not a touchy feely individual so  forget about Public display of affection! Even towards his children. I do not think he ever held me in his arms  or cuddled me ever; even as a child. I am not highlighting a childhood father wound. Not at all ! His way of showing love  was to bring me to his office and sit me down in the massive Times Of India library with children's literature. Get me to Firoz Shah kotla stadium and let me watch Tony Greig hit a ton, all by myself. Bring home international Journals and magazines to read. Have a house full of books and encourage open discussions on topics ranging from scientific inventions to film and personal relations. Always with tolerance for my immaturity and patience for my youthful ignorance. 
 
Before I forget let me tell you one unusual instance when he did pick me up. He took me to watch the military parade. I was too little and it was crowded. I watched the parade from his shoulders. I still remember the tanks rolling down majestically on the marching route. That was the day!

I will be there again soon so we will  watch the parade together this year - on TV of course. I am too big to ride his shoulders ! Hope he is well enough to interact brilliantly as usual.

Yeah; it is the birthday of the modern Republic of India. A simple search on the internet will tell you that Indian republic shares a birthday with Paul Newman and Ellen DeGeneres among some other individuals that you are not acquainted with. 
 
Once upon a time; a long long  time ago in order to celebrate the birthday of just such a person we made plans. As they were already in town on a study trip  we were to meet at a bus stop and then walk to Nirula's restaurant  across the road. We had been there before, we liked it and I could afford it. The bus stop was an easy ride away for them and they had been there a couple of times earlier. I reached early and waited for them to arrive.

I waited a long time, a few hours beyond the appointed hour. I waited in vain. This was of course pre cell phone era. Buses came and went. They did not arrive. Later during their stay in town, I was told that they had also waited.... but at a different bus stop on the same route. By mistake they had gotten off earlier! Anyway, we will do this next year, they consoled me! They will be done studies and come to Delhi for good. I understood! 

It happened as they said; mostly! They were done next year and they did come to Delhi for good after a little time at home!  Do not  ask me about the rest of the pact we had. They did not come for me. In short they told me that they have found someone who loves them the way they want and they could not  care any less for my  bruised ego!! I should get lost or whatever.... 

Sunk cost escape! Have you heard about the concept? Comes originally from the corporate world. What it means is that a manager needs to know when to shut a project down ; even if it means that the money spent  on it will be lost forever. Cut your loss and run! Alternative is to keep on investing resources in it and further increase  your losses. Project is lost anyway. Makes a lot of business sense. Doesn't it?

At an individual level it means to stop reading a book you do not like. Do not drag yourself towards the last page just because you have bought the book. No need to finish watching a movie that is boring you to death. Let the admission price go waste. Exit signs are there for a reason in all theatres. Do not force yourself to stay in a draining toxic relationship dynamic that pains the heart all the time.

It's foolhardy to stay invested because you threw a large part of your life in and destroyed  decades  defending a poor choice. Think about the rest of your life! Can you afford to waste what is left and make compromise over compromise?

Life unfortunately is not a business venture. Most of us are trapped in a mental cage of our own that keeps us from saving ourselves. Our fears, our doubts and our selfish greed play havoc with what ought to be done. We are shattered internally into a million pieces, but this imaginary cage gives us a movie set like facade for the world outside. In reality we only manage to fool ourselves. World is really not bothered one way or the other. 

Jungle can teach us a thing or two if we observe honestly. Cow and Bison are similar animals. When a storm gathers on the horizon, a cow sees the storm and quickly finds a tree or other shelter to hide behind. At the same time, it keeps moving away from the storm, creating larger and larger distance from it. With the result that when the storm finally makes contact with the cow it has already gathered its full might.  The cow is now forced to take   a massive hit from the storm at its highest potency. Hiding and running away proves counterproductive. But cow is a coward!

Bison on the other hand quickly rushes towards the mouth of the storm and meets it head on as early as it can. Bison too gets hit as the storm passes by, but the storm is weak, at its beginner intensity. Smart! A bison has more intelligence than most of us. We act like cows and do not understand that running away will not spare us any troubles. We have seldom found the courage and honesty to face the problem squarely when it crops up and do the right thing. Sad isn't it, that we have to take a bigger load of the crap than we need to because of what we lack - courage, integrity and ethical behaviour.

I am a step worse off than most being in a mental prison serving a life sentence. Around this day I go back in my mind to that bus stop, scanning the horizon for the bus that will never arrive; waiting for the disembarking birthday girl. A person gone so long ago that she only exists in my memory. I know fully well that a version of her has already gotten off at a different bus stop of life. All the more by her own choice; never again to take the route where I could be. I too am a different version of myself ! Much older if not much wiser. No longer am I an innocent, trusting individual. No , I am not!

I only pause mentally. The thing is that I was lied to so seamlessly that I am no longer sure if any of what I depicted  even happened, ever! Was I there at the bus stop that day ?  Were they  actually  at another bus stop that day or was that a convenient lie too?

What part of  this is my imagination; what part is a reality? What was  factual ; which one  was a white lie?  Is that my dead hope playing tricks on me; or is that a cherished memory nudging at my heartstrings? Was that care or was that manipulation? What was the real emotion; what was vampish bread crumbing? Am I even sane for having these thoughts running through my head or have I gone  totally cukkoo! 

In my confused, stupified hazy mind they alight from the bus every year; at the stop I am waiting then the image ends.

Since I am in town on this day what if I go to that bus stop; the one they said they were waiting? Maybe I will find their innocent, truthful, caring trustworthy, intelligent, beautiful and cheerful version there waiting for me. I could then ask about their welfare and wish them a happy birthday. Can I not?

It is that kind of the day! 

Sunk cost escape did not work for me. I have kept pouring into a leaking vessel; unmindful of my mounting losses. I have never learned to behave any other way. I can't get out of the mental cage I am in but once in a while I can shout and get my words out; freely flying away!

26 January; That is the day. So, like the previous 40 odd times, I will add yet another loss to my vast collection by sending out greetings of the republic day and wishes for a super happy birthday in advance to someone you do not know. Someone I thought I knew but I was wrong. Very wrong indeed! Let the universe bring my good wishes to them!

May they have a great birthday and an amazingly happy life ahead. Maybe they too remember the bus stop from the past!
 
26 January is that kind of the day!



 





 

Sunday, January 11, 2026

The Difficult Divorce!

"Tronald Dump", Cartoon by Ashutosh Kaul 
 W135mm X H 200mm; Pen & Ink on paper.

Joseph Stalin ran a very tight ship. His admirers will however tell you that he inherited a nation of wooden carts and turned it into a nation of space crafts. It had its costs though; especially the human cost. Millions of  Soviet citizens were imprisoned, millions were executed and several more were sent to Gulag - labour camps in the  Russian far East. 

His ruthless henchman doing the dirty work was one Georgian named Laverinty Beria. Just a mere mention of the name Beria was enough to bring chills of intense fear down anyone's spine! Famously he is reported to have said, " show me the man and I will show you the crime"! 

Lebensraum is such an innocuous German word meaning  living space. Amazing that this word is behind world war 2. Hitler invaded Poland, France , Russia and bombed  half of England to bits in order to get more land towards the eastern part of Germany.

History is littered with tyrants, despots, dictators and megalomaniacs that bought war,  misery, suffering and injustice to the world. All of them had  very high sounding stated ideologies behind their actions and there is no dearth of their  admirers too. Yes, even Hitler! He is largely credited for the German industrial Renaissance like Autobahn and volkswagon? That however does not absolve him of murdering millions for being  Jewish. You might recall the sign at the entrance of Nazi concentration death camps was a lofty sounding "Arbeit macht frei", meaning work makes one free!  Yeah right ; free as in dead ! Straight out of the devil's playbook if you ask me! 

Do you know why these names come to mind when you think of Trump? One word - Venezuela! Now I am not going to to give any character certificate to the Maduro  government but look if US has the authority to execute an unilateral action ; what is the use of UN then ? Can a country simply invade a weaker nation on any pretext without providing any proof of any kind? If all countries did what US so blithely did, where will it lead to? They masked the military action as a police action in order to avoid taking appropriate approvals from the US congress. It does not fool any body and Trump does not care if it does ! USA has a bad history with facts. Remember they invaded Iraq to get their hands on their WMD that never was. At the same time US proxy Pakistan not only pursued one but also openly ran a nuclear Walmart trading fissile material and nuclear tech with North Korea among others. US calmly turned a blind eye!

Now I have gone through a number of commentaries and analysis from various sources and here is  my take in a nutshell. USA is afraid; it is very afraid and there is a good reason for it too. Firstly when it engaged in the ping pong diplomacy with China in the early 1970's ; USA  never imagined that they are digging their own grave. They saw supporting China as a way of neutralizing One more Soviet ally. Fifty odd years later China has turned into a huge monster that is directly challenging USA from sports to Trade and Technology. These are the modern currencies of the world. Every day USA is trying to play catch up and losing ground steadily. Strictly from the US perspective China needs to be slowed down.

Then comes the traditional currency itself - The mighty Dollar ! After the significant US role in the second world war and because of it US$ replaced British pound as the most prominent currency in the world. US strengthened its position incrementally and made  agreements in the middle east for them to sell oil in US$ only in return for the US security umbrella. This worked fine for long. Every nation needed to hunt for the dollar; US$ went from strength to strength and USA kept laughing all the way to the bank! With the demise of the Soviet Union; US virtually had a free run of the world. Sadly for them Russia has resurfaced. China of course has become quite powerful and holds a massive dollar reserve; 3.3433 Trillion to be exact. Highest of any nation. Then there is India- fast adding economic heft and growing at 7%. Among the highest rate of growth in the world.   With a GDP north of 2 Trillion Dollars , Brazil in the US backyard has also become a rising economic power and if you think I just explained BRICS to you ; you are right because I did! Just add South Africa to the mix and you have the core. BRICS is the biggest nightmare Trump has and he is wildly lashing out to control it!

"Dedollarisation", is a concept whose time has come. More and more international trade deals are seeking to divorce the dollar. If you know anything about divorces ; you know it is not easy. USA accounts for 25% of the world economy and at times the sole supplier of critical equipment and products. Remember that Oil price is denominated in US$. Decades of interactions; trade and financial ties as well as intergovernmental treaties and critical business necessities can  only be ignored at a cost. You understand how difficult  it is to finalize this divorce, don't you? China is increasingly producing high technology products; even arms and armaments. Mostly at a lower price point. A number of recent deals have been snatched by them from the US hands. US  F 35 stealth fighter Vs. Chinese J 20 stealth fighters is a case in point. Nearly the same initial  price but  J 20 has significantly lower costs over its serviceable life and their order books are filling fast. While F35 orders are being scaled back and cancelled at times.  No surprise! US is worried sick !

USA has largely blocked Iranian oil  from  reaching the world markets. It has severally sanctioned Russian Oil on the pretext of Ukraine. The war that is mostly forced on Russia by the west. US at the same time has been severally pressurizing both India and China  from buying the Russian oil. So far with minimum success! I know you are thinking Where is Venezuela in all this gibberish ? 

Get this, Venezuela holds 20% of the entire oil reserves of the world ! Venezuela has been selling the oil directly to customers and reportedly accepting currencies other than Dollar! China is the biggest customer in the world. India is right behind. Crude oil fuels their economies. Venezuela had also made overtures to Join BRICS. Just as comparison estimated GDP of BRICS jointly runs between 45 - 50% of the world economy measured by purchase power parity. Way ahead of the US. US wants to control access to the Venezuelan oil and exploit it for their own gain.

What happens when 50% of the world neither buys from the American businesses nor use American currency for their trade? US dollar loses value; US economy stagnates and US loses influence in the world. US can not let it happen so it resorts to thuggery, kidnapping , violence; violation of national sovereignty and goes against every international tenant in the rule book!  

You might recall USA has recently floated the idea of Canada as a US 51 st state. It has been repeated so often that is not funny any more. It does not bother US  that Canada is a  sovereign nation and  the closest ally that is more than offended by this loose talk. Just to clarify, Canada has massive oil reserves in addition to most of the world's freshwater  and extensive mineral resources. 

Greenland is another pie that US wants to gobble up. It does not matter that a NATO ally Denmark is impacted by this intransigence; Trump wants it pronto ! There is  even a constant banter of 'forced annexation'. Obviously alarm bells are ringing wildly in the European capitals! Why Greenland you ask! Well one for the natural resources and two for its militarily strategic geographical location between North America and Europe. USA also wants to control the trans arctic shipping route. This route is increasingly being used to supply China among others.

Just off the mainland China sits Taiwan. We are not going to discuss that tense and fractured relationship but understand that US is strongly present there. Ostensibly to provide security to Taiwan but actually to monitor and squeeze China by blocking the sea lanes, if need be. 

So Trump wants to control trade routes; corner a lion's share of the world mineral resources and keep a stranglehold on crude oil distribution. They plan to keep dollar high and absolutely necessary for commerce for a start. It also wants to slow down the technological and economic progress of other countries, mainly China and India by choking access to cheap oil and limiting technology transfers to some extent. Tariffs are being used strategically to smother trade and inflows of hard currency for these economies. Trump has weaponized immigration too. 100,000 dollar fee for H1B visa is one aspect ; you might have heard of how a regular mother of a small child was shot dead by  an ICE agent in Minneapolis. Things are just getting out of hand!

Just today someone very worriedly asked my take on the possibility of a US commando raid to kidnap the Canadian PM Carney if  he does not facilitate Canada becoming the 51 st state of the USA.

I thought he was joking - he was not!

As I said earlier even Hitler has admirers! A whole lot of people;  a lot of them US voters are currently wondering what did they ever see in this person ? Although not a US voter;  I am sadly one of them. It's amazing how we could not see through the chap for a deranged narcissistic that he is. One that is an ego driven megalomaniac  taking reckless actions and making dangerous emotionally charged and amplified rhetorical  claims.  He is simply doing more damage than good ! We should have known better. We should have!

So many think Trump is a discredit to America and wish to get him out of the way. He of course still has most of the three  years of his Four year term left. He remains in charge at the white house. There is no knowing what other crazy mess he will create ahead. Pray for a rule based world order. Pray very hard and keep your fingers crossed because Trump is going nowhere in a hurry !

What did I say about divorces! It is never easy; It is not!