Best Before!

 Representative Picture

Himalayan salt is a rock that has existed for , what , a million years ; maybe 10 million. It has been there for a very long long time time, let's say. Yet when you go and buy some at the grocery store , the box it comes in shows a best before date. Usually about two years from the packaging date. How in the blazes does that happen ? It can not be right! Right? It did not expire for millions of years but it will  now that I have bought it! This sounds like a con , or does it?

I can understand this for bread. It will go stale and eventually develop mould and fungus. Milk will also spoil after a certain time, even in a refrigerator . Usually If we can not finish it in good time we  curdle it and make cottage cheese or warm it, stir in two spoonful of yogurt with active culture and let it set  in a warm environment. It soon becomes yogurt. Of course you know how this is done. I am not explaining the cheese making process using lemon juice or white vinegar. So you can re purpose milk ; but no matter what you do, it  no longer remains  milk.

Apparently everything in the world has an expiry date. Don't be alarmed  but the entire life in this world is also going to end.... in a billion years! As solar warming will evaporate oceans and make any life  impossible to exist. In about 5 billion years the planet earth will be entirely engulfed by  the sun! 

Imperial house of Japan is the longest ruling dynasty. It  has been ruling for about 1500 years. Pandyan dynasty in south India also ruled for 1500 years and is historically considered the longest ever to rule, world wide. Roman empire ruled for about 1400 years. There are other long duration regimes too.  They are all gracing the pages of history books.  Japan is an exception currently; albeit their monarchy is largely ceremonial. Actual power has expired long ago.

Can you really imagine Nazi Germany actually Planned  Tausendjähriges Reich;  1,000 - year rule. And we all know it  expired in 1945 after a mere 12 years. Despots usually are narcissists and vice versa. They refuse to see beyond their nose. They can not even imagine that they can ever be wrong and  are in fact just insufferable! Trump is thankfully limited to two terms other wise he thinks too highly of himself and his administration. The insolent twit actually demanded ; repeat demanded a Nobel prize for himself. When it did not materialize; he somehow conned or arm twisted the Venezuela's leader of the opposition to gift her Nobel prize medal to him. It is the same Venezuela that Trump had invaded earlier in the week. Trump is a certifiable Megalomaniac indeed whose best before date is long past!

Mamta Banerjee is quite another character. It was not a small feat to wrest power from a deeply entrenched cadre based communist regime of Jyoti basu's successor Budhadev. She started life as a crusader against corruption and successfully took over power in Bengal, 15 years ago. A bit like kejriwal in Delhi against Shiela dixit's corruption.

Corruption has an expiry date? Should be, but apparently honesty has one! Just like kejriwal lost badly in feb.2025 on corruption charges ; Mamta lost on 4 th may this year, mainly over corruption and matters of public safety. It was such a come down for the poster boy and poster girl of virtue , fairness and honesty! They both went down by brazenly condoning massive self serving corruption and lawlessness under their watch . According to person's in the know they themselves have became corruption  personified.

We have seen it before so many times. Narcissistic despots never learn. They are so full of their own BS that it no longer smells to them. Hitler never believed he was losing the war; until the last day when the victorious Soviet army tanks rolled into Berlin. He had to shoot himself to save himself the indignity of being captured alive .

Last time Trump lost his election, he became incredulous to the extreme. He claimed a stolen election and egged on his supporters to invade Washington DC. People are still facing legal consequences for acting impulsively and immaturely to Trump's advice. He of course is back in office creating more chaos in other parts of the world!

Kejriwal was stunned by the scale of his defeat  in Delhi. He has resolutely refused to look at his own fault lines; his endemic corruption and his massive bribe taking in the liquor scam. He simply shrugges accountability and  blames the defeat to the misinformation and propaganda of BJP!

Mamta is not an exception. Her acute sense of entitlement refuses to look in the mirror. She was running a mafia, not a government. In Bengal one could not even get their own house white washed without paying a bribe. Usually one had to engage an 'approved'  contractor suggested by the local trinamool party enforcer or else! People were scared to even speak out. She could jail; unbothered by democracy or law; a cartoonist for his cartoon; a professor for sharing a tweet; a journalist.......

Mamta did not read the label. Her expiry date was long before 4th of May 2026. She had already putrefied and was stinking to hell. 4th May was  Bengal's garbage collection day and People took the garbage out.  She was not planning to lose;  but she could not see that her time was up! There are indications I think; that she can re purpose herself into a  nasty little nuisance but she is not getting back her crown anytime soon. I think never; the opportunity she had  to govern was completely missed and misused by her. It has expired. Mamta  beyond her best before date is useless! Even the opposition will start keeping a distance from her. This defeat will effectively end her political saga.

Before you point it out let me preempt you! Yes; pure honey does not expire. It has an indefinite shelf life. Properly stored and sealed honey jars have survived thousands of years without spoiling! Nature is amazing really!

No! I have not forgotten about our rock salt question. You see  salt is like love. Eternal, unconditional and forever. Everything tastes better with a little bit of these two.

Sadly life is not forever. It ages and degenerates. Health challenges, social, financial, and familial conditions constrain  and deteriorate it inexorably. One reaches an age where very little can be held up, much less the massive responsibilities of love or a lot of salt for that matter ! 

I found out that the rock salt  actually does not expire; the carton it is packed in does. With age it starts degrading; disintegrating and contaminating the product it holds. Whole package has to be thrown out if not used in time. Honey for that matter is not indestructible either. You let it  loose and not cared for....... It too will spoil in  quick time !

What it teaches us that everything  in life has a best before date. Life itself has a best before date. Timing is everything. You  do the right thing;  on time or regret it forever! The voters of Bengal hit the nail right on the head! First chance they got! Good for them!

 

 

The Difficult Divorce!

"Tronald Dump", Cartoon by Ashutosh Kaul 

 W135mm X H 200mm; Pen & Ink on paper.

Joseph Stalin ran a very tight ship. His admirers will however tell you that he inherited a nation of wooden carts and turned it into a nation of space crafts. It had its costs though; especially the human cost. Millions of  Soviet citizens were imprisoned, millions were executed and several more were sent to Gulag - labour camps in the  Russian far East. 

His ruthless henchman doing the dirty work was one Georgian named Laverinty Beria. Just a mere mention of the name Beria was enough to bring chills of intense fear down anyone's spine! Famously he is reported to have said, " show me the man and I will show you the crime"! 

Lebensraum is such an innocuous German word meaning  living space. Amazing that this word is behind world war 2. Hitler invaded Poland, France , Russia and bombed  half of England to bits in order to get more land towards the eastern part of Germany.

History is littered with tyrants, despots, dictators and megalomaniacs that bought war,  misery, suffering and injustice to the world. All of them had  very high sounding stated ideologies behind their actions and there is no dearth of their  admirers too. Yes, even Hitler! He is largely credited for the German industrial Renaissance like Autobahn and volkswagon? That however does not absolve him of murdering millions for being  Jewish. You might recall the sign at the entrance of Nazi concentration death camps was a lofty sounding "Arbeit macht frei", meaning work makes one free!  Yeah right ; free as in dead ! Straight out of the devil's playbook if you ask me! 

Do you know why these names come to mind when you think of Trump? One word - Venezuela! Now I am not going to to give any character certificate to the Maduro  government but look if US has the authority to execute an unilateral action ; what is the use of UN then ? Can a country simply invade a weaker nation on any pretext without providing any proof of any kind? If all countries did what US so blithely did, where will it lead to? They masked the military action as a police action in order to avoid taking appropriate approvals from the US congress. It does not fool any body and Trump does not care if it does ! USA has a bad history with facts. Remember they invaded Iraq to get their hands on their WMD that never was. At the same time US proxy Pakistan not only pursued one but also openly ran a nuclear Walmart trading fissile material and nuclear tech with North Korea among others. US calmly turned a blind eye!

Now I have gone through a number of commentaries and analysis from various sources and here is  my take in a nutshell. USA is afraid; it is very afraid and there is a good reason for it too. Firstly when it engaged in the ping pong diplomacy with China in the early 1970's ; USA  never imagined that they are digging their own grave. They saw supporting China as a way of neutralizing One more Soviet ally. Fifty odd years later China has turned into a huge monster that is directly challenging USA from sports to Trade and Technology. These are the modern currencies of the world. Every day USA is trying to play catch up and losing ground steadily. Strictly from the US perspective China needs to be slowed down.

Then comes the traditional currency itself - The mighty Dollar ! After the significant US role in the second world war and because of it US$ replaced British pound as the most prominent currency in the world. US strengthened its position incrementally and made  agreements in the middle east for them to sell oil in US$ only in return for the US security umbrella. This worked fine for long. Every nation needed to hunt for the dollar; US$ went from strength to strength and USA kept laughing all the way to the bank! With the demise of the Soviet Union; US virtually had a free run of the world. Sadly for them Russia has resurfaced. China of course has become quite powerful and holds a massive dollar reserve; 3.3433 Trillion to be exact. Highest of any nation. Then there is India- fast adding economic heft and growing at 7%. Among the highest rate of growth in the world.   With a GDP north of 2 Trillion Dollars , Brazil in the US backyard has also become a rising economic power and if you think I just explained BRICS to you ; you are right because I did! Just add South Africa to the mix and you have the core. BRICS is the biggest nightmare Trump has and he is wildly lashing out to control it!

"Dedollarisation", is a concept whose time has come. More and more international trade deals are seeking to divorce the dollar. If you know anything about divorces ; you know it is not easy. USA accounts for 25% of the world economy and at times the sole supplier of critical equipment and products. Remember that Oil price is denominated in US$. Decades of interactions; trade and financial ties as well as intergovernmental treaties and critical business necessities can  only be ignored at a cost. You understand how difficult  it is to finalize this divorce, don't you? China is increasingly producing high technology products; even arms and armaments. Mostly at a lower price point. A number of recent deals have been snatched by them from the US hands. US  F 35 stealth fighter Vs. Chinese J 20 stealth fighters is a case in point. Nearly the same initial  price but  J 20 has significantly lower costs over its serviceable life and their order books are filling fast. While F35 orders are being scaled back and cancelled at times.  No surprise! US is worried sick !

USA has largely blocked Iranian oil  from  reaching the world markets. It has severally sanctioned Russian Oil on the pretext of Ukraine. The war that is mostly forced on Russia by the west. US at the same time has been severally pressurizing both India and China  from buying the Russian oil. So far with minimum success! I know you are thinking Where is Venezuela in all this gibberish ? 

Get this, Venezuela holds 20% of the entire oil reserves of the world ! Venezuela has been selling the oil directly to customers and reportedly accepting currencies other than Dollar! China is the biggest customer in the world. India is right behind. Crude oil fuels their economies. Venezuela had also made overtures to Join BRICS. Just as comparison estimated GDP of BRICS jointly runs between 45 - 50% of the world economy measured by purchase power parity. Way ahead of the US. US wants to control access to the Venezuelan oil and exploit it for their own gain.

What happens when 50% of the world neither buys from the American businesses nor use American currency for their trade? US dollar loses value; US economy stagnates and US loses influence in the world. US can not let it happen so it resorts to thuggery, kidnapping , violence; violation of national sovereignty and goes against every international tenant in the rule book!  

You might recall USA has recently floated the idea of Canada as a US 51 st state. It has been repeated so often that is not funny any more. It does not bother US  that Canada is a  sovereign nation and  the closest ally that is more than offended by this loose talk. Just to clarify, Canada has massive oil reserves in addition to most of the world's freshwater  and extensive mineral resources. 

Greenland is another pie that US wants to gobble up. It does not matter that a NATO ally Denmark is impacted by this intransigence; Trump wants it pronto ! There is  even a constant banter of 'forced annexation'. Obviously alarm bells are ringing wildly in the European capitals! Why Greenland you ask! Well one for the natural resources and two for its militarily strategic geographical location between North America and Europe. USA also wants to control the trans arctic shipping route. This route is increasingly being used to supply China among others.

Just off the mainland China sits Taiwan. We are not going to discuss that tense and fractured relationship but understand that US is strongly present there. Ostensibly to provide security to Taiwan but actually to monitor and squeeze China by blocking the sea lanes, if need be. 

So Trump wants to control trade routes; corner a lion's share of the world mineral resources and keep a stranglehold on crude oil distribution. They plan to keep dollar high and absolutely necessary for commerce for a start. It also wants to slow down the technological and economic progress of other countries, mainly China and India by choking access to cheap oil and limiting technology transfers to some extent. Tariffs are being used strategically to smother trade and inflows of hard currency for these economies. Trump has weaponized immigration too. 100,000 dollar fee for H1B visa is one aspect ; you might have heard of how a regular mother of a small child was shot dead by  an ICE agent in Minneapolis. Things are just getting out of hand!

Just today someone very worriedly asked my take on the possibility of a US commando raid to kidnap the Canadian PM Carney if  he does not facilitate Canada becoming the 51 st state of the USA.

I thought he was joking - he was not!

As I said earlier even Hitler has admirers! A whole lot of people;  a lot of them US voters are currently wondering what did they ever see in this person ? Although not a US voter;  I am sadly one of them. It's amazing how we could not see through the chap for a deranged narcissistic that he is. One that is an ego driven megalomaniac  taking reckless actions and making dangerous emotionally charged and amplified rhetorical  claims.  He is simply doing more damage than good ! We should have known better. We should have!

So many think Trump is a discredit to America and wish to get him out of the way. He of course still has most of the three  years of his Four year term left. He remains in charge at the white house. There is no knowing what other crazy mess he will create ahead. Pray for a rule based world order. Pray very hard and keep your fingers crossed because Trump is going nowhere in a hurry !

What did I say about divorces! It is never easy; It is not!

 

Free Stuff!

My car has a little problem that has never gotten fixed even at the Lexus dealership. They can't find anything wrong with it. Front tyre are both fine, but the back right tyre loses air in cold weather. Not a lot but enough for the tire pressure monitoring system to register it and the warning orange lights to light up. This annoys me no end! Hate this light!

So I used to drive to the gas station just at the intersection outside home and fill air before I proceeded to wherever I was going. The air pump was  self serviced and free! Did I already tell you 'it was'? Then all the gas stations decided that they will charge a dollar for air unless someone fills gas first.  In that case It will still be free. I continued filling air this way; sometimes by paying, at other times gratis because I filled my tank at the same time.

Then the price went up to 2 dollars to be charged to your credit card, irrespective of you filling gas at the same time or not. Just for comparison gas was about a dollar for a litre. It started to pinch ; specially as I had to fork this out the entire winter; just for that one tyre twice a week. I can afford 2 dollars , but it is the principle and it stinks. You get the feeling ; don't you?

Even the air was not free any more! Eventually I had to spend good money on purchasing my own  car battery operated air pump to avoid the gas stations bankrupting me by selling me free air!

Amazon still does free returns! Just keep in mind that you need to have bought some stuff already and they have included the return postage into their selling price. It isn't free really!

13th amendment abolished slavery in 1865 and African Americans were 'freed' a long time ago. They are still paying a price for being who they are. Free is not really free! Everything costs something and God forbid should you go for  free money.  It costs too much! Your life... almost always! Nothing is free!

So you have already heard about Zohran Mamdani; newly minted mayor of New York. He is Mira Nair's son from her current husband Mahmud Mamdani. My biased opinion is that her name would have been Maira Mahmuda Mamdani but likely got saved by the fact that she was already an established film maker under her own name at the time of her marriage! 

Any way I would hope that she had some self respect and kept her name consciously. Her film making does show a clear impact of her Islamic company. Apparently she did not convert at marriage and her husband is non practising.  Zohran still was raised a Muslim by her and that's what he self identifies as! A little strange self goal I would say!

I can see people's reservations with that in a city like New York. Specially his previous statements about Israel - Palestine issue and his aunt's hijab. There is another complexity - his wife! Rama Duwaji is an established  artist  of Arabic heritage and her work is largely focused on Arabic and Islamic themes. Just understand that 9/11 happened in New York by Arab terrorists in support of Arab and Islamic causes and picture begins to darken. I do not blame people to see the ghosts of 9/11 in 11/4 !

Zohran can cause a lot of uneasiness just by being himself. He also played Bollywood numbers after his win; maybe as a nod to his Indian mother. India is not exactly the flavour of the day in the US under Trump and it has not gone down too well either! A direct comparison is already being made with Sadiq Khan; currently the mayor of London, UK. It is giving many New Yorkers sleepless nights as London under Sadiq has mostly turned into londonistan according to reliable word on the street!

We can ignore most of these facts for now as unproven bias and allow his actions to show his true self. We need to give him that. The real challenge lies some where else! In one word it is called ' free stuff'!

Mamdani looks like he graduated  from the kejriwal school of politics. Kejriwal perfected the art of promising freebies that he had no money for; to select sections of the electorate and win at the polls. He also pioneered cultivation of the urban Naxalite ; anti rich image that appeals to a certain demographic.

A cursory look at Mamdani's platform will show that he wants to tax the rich. He believes nobody has a right to be a billionaire. He has promised free universal child care; free city bus services; freezing of rent and city run grocery stores.

He would pay for it by a tax on wealth and an increase of the corporate tax rate. All this B.S. appeals to the immigrant and lower and middle class demographic. Those are the one that need a helping hand and they get out to vote in large numbers. This is another parallel between New Delhi and New York. Large immigrant voter base struggling to keep their head above water in an expensive megalopolis. This demographic is the one that voted kejriwal to power and this demographic is the one that has voted Mamdani in. Just remember voting percentage in New York has not crossed 38 %. That means 62% of the eligible voters did not cast their vote! 

Here is the problem. The moment you tax wealth; wealthy will vote with their feet and leave the city. Their money opens many doors to them and they do not have to live in New York. If you raise corporate tax understand that corporations have a clear responsibility to their share holders to maximize profits and this increased cost of operation will result in either the corporations relocating or passing the cost on to the consumer. Likely both.

These promises are hollow with slim chances of success or any tangible benefit to ordinary citizens.  There is no money  for them either.They however are a good rallying points and create big voting blocks that can and does hand you the elections!

Those that know how those kejriwal world class schools; mohalla clinics ; free DTC bus for women, free water; free electricity  etc. fared ; know that these schemes are populist but not sustainable. Only thing that worked  well was buy one get one booze bottle scheme! You do not need me to tell you that having a wine shop on every street corner does not do much for social uplift. It was used to generate slush fund for election spending in Punjab.

 

Here is wishing Zohran Mamdani a better result for New York than what kejriwal delivered for the citizens of New Delhi. I would not exactly recommend  keeping high hopes to the good old New Yorkers though! Keep your fingers crossed. Free is always expensive! You will certainly pay more than you would have if you get what you can afford. It is all coming out of your pockets! Remember that!

 

Oh Donald !

The US president has always presented tariffs on goods and services as some kind of a silver bullet that will fix everything. His position was well know  even before and during his election campaign. One however did expect him to use sagacity, long term vision and keep  real world economic realities in mind when in office.

Sadly this is the worst version of Trump so far. He is going more for high noise , sharp optics and zero intelligence options in his second presidency. It sadly is not limited to economy but as diverse matters as immigration, academia and LGBTQ matters are being handled in a harsh ,insensitive and self defeating manner. There of course are other  political and global power games as policy factors but his strong arm coersive policies will end with egg on his face in a very short time,I predict.

According to statistics 50% of all phd candidates in the US are foreign born. What happens when you kick them out? Silicon valley became Silicon valley on the backs of foreign born engineers on H1B visa. Trump may want to check who runs top most US tech. generating thousands upon thousands of jobs. Does he want these top guns to go home and work from Bangalore  and Shenzen?

Anyway let us stick to tariffs. Look at the electric vehicles segment for example. The biggest electric vehicles company in the world is ..... no , it is not Tesla. It is BYD. It is a chinese company. They make the best cars and commercial vehicles in the world at a price point which is way lower than Tesla. 

Apparently the tariffs on them was 30% during Joe Biden administration which this genius in the White House has raised to 100%. BYD can not afford to sell in the US market. Europe is gleefully  using them. What it means that an European competitor has lesser cost to operate than a US entity which will have to buy an expensive Tesla commercial vehicle. It may temporarily protect some Tesla jobs but very quickly loose several times more because US companies with a higher operating cost will get  priced out of the market.

There are several other examples from different areas of the US economy in a similar predicament.

Canada, where I live is still prefixed with USA. You will be surprised how many think of them as one country. It is very common in the post office to get mail addressed to someone in a Canadian city with USA as the destinaton country!

The relation is this close and Trump has literally gone to war with Canada. First with the 51st state jab and then opening tariff hostilities. The economic loss is already biting sharply on both sides of the border.

Trump used the Russian - Ukraine war pretext to put 25% tariffs on India, now increased to 50%.  Stop buying Russian oil he commands. It is financing Russia's war! Everyone understands he is actually actually irked and threatened by the BRICS . Again according to statistics  BRICS countries together have 35% of the world economy as opposed to about 27% held by The US. So instead of engaging in a meaningful,  robust economic cooperation with the BRICS , Trump is taking the low road of trying to arm twist.

India will be impacted by the tariffs, however expected to absorb the fallout. imagine the impact on health care  costs in the USA as bulk of generic medicine in the US is sourced from India.  They are the world's pharmacy!

What kind of loosing game is this bufoon playing at? As a reporter asked him the other day, US is buying uranium and fertilizers from Russia, how is that not financing the war on Ukraine?  

What a hypocratic loose cannon he is proving to be. Kamala could not have done any worse; could she?

 

Clever Mouse !

 Clever Mouse! चालाक चूहा !

 

"Be a mouse again" Pen and ink  on paper 14cm X 22cm  Feb.2025. by  Ashutosh Kaul 

Politicians do not come with a lot of recommendations. Typically they are self serving with very flexible scruples and moral values. They make deals all the time; not very transparent or lawful at that. Unfortunately they are part of the system of governance and we can not avoid them altogether. We however can select individuals with integrity, honesty and empathy for public welfare.

Back in 2012 Delhi saw a thin ,emaciated , educated and a very relatable individual come to fore. Arvind Kejriwal was an engineer from  the prestigious Indian Institute of Technology;had worked for the Revenue service and was campaigning against corruption in public life. People took to him like a duck to water! His stated goal was to set up a "lekhpal"; a sort of public commissioner that would ensure probity. He emphasized that he will not be contesting any elections and has no political ambitions ! Public had visions of an altruistic Mahatma Gandhi that has come back to life!

He soon junked that 'absurd' idea  and formed a political party; parting ways with his old mentor Anna Hazare and several other distinguished colleagues of the anti corruption movement. Good thing was that he swore an oath upon his children that he will never support that abysmally corrupt congress party nor will he ever take their support in forming the government. Come election and a hung verdict saw him form the government in Delhi province with the support of....... congress of course!

His personal integrity was still largely intact. Then he came up with  his famous "Delhi" model of governance. This was largely based on taxpayer borne freebies to select voting blocks that ensured electoral majority for himself. It succeeded beyond success and in the next election in 2015 he decimated the opposition.Winning 67 seats out of 70. This is the moment his ambitions got ahead of himself. He considered himself the centre of all that is good in this world and  projected himself for the top job in the country - Prime minister's office. He did contest against the Prime minister in a federal election and.... lost. In the process he shook hands with all kinds and took funds from entities inimical to the country. Anyone in his own party that pointed out these serious digressions from their party's stated goals was unceremoniously booted out. Even his closest associates and founding members of the party were shown the door. Not one or two; dozens had to leave ! He had the reigns of Delhi government though and controlled one of the largest provincial budgets in India.

Money is a great glue.and people still flocked to him. He took his party national and fought various other provincial elections with limited success. One province where he got a lot more purchase was Punjab where he was able to win a majority. Apparently to fund his expansion and huge election costs he accepted funds from dubious sources as well as created a 10 million dollar liquor licensing scam in Delhi.You may get drinking water in Delhi or not but you are never far from a liquor shop. Every street corner has one. Buy One Get One free scheme became common. He was later jailed and prosecuted for this corrupt mess. Currently he is out on bail in this case and professes complete innocence of any wrong doing..

In the meantime another election rolled in and on the back of his freebie strategy he steam rolled the opposition again. He lost a little bit but 62 out of 70 total seats is still a stupendous number! The fellow carried on his merry way. He turned dictatorial, confrontational and very economical with facts. Convinced that he is the next prime minister, he took one bad decision after another; turned his back on one associate after another and went back upon every word  he ever uttered publicly.

His classic assertion  that he does not want trappings of power went out of window when he got 4 heritage buildings torn down to make his 40,000 sq. ft official residence. A palace on 7 acres of land. Anyone that knows Delhi will know that 7 acres of prime residential land there would cost an unbelievably astronomical sum. On top of this he spent 8 times the allocated budget by indulging in creative accounting by breaking down jobs into smaller amounts. That  fell  just a little short of the threshold requiring oversight by the governors office !

Change does not happen overnight, things simmer around for a long time but  arrogant narcissists have their heads so far up their own asses that they fail to see it.  He truly believed that voters are very angry with authorities because he was wrongfully jailed ! In fact he boldly asserted that he will become the premier again only when people vote him in again; no matter the judicial decision in his favour. He was so certain of his victory that he asserted that no body can defeat him in this life! 

Well elections rolled in recently and people gave their verdict and declared him to be corrupt. Fellow dropped 10% support. Enough for him to loose his own seat as well as the seats of every  co accused of corruption in his cabinet. Voter condemnation was quite emphatic.In fact he lost 40 out of 62 seats he originally held. He could not get elected even as a simple member of the legislature , much less its premier ! Talk of over estimation !  Like the classic story the mouse has come a full circle to being a mouse again. This time with his tail between his legs!

He still has about 40% of the vote share in Delhi so can he cover lost ground? It depends! Without power and money that comes with it, it will be hard to keep his flock together. Especially since he does not have any largesse to dole out. I see a significant erosion in his party cadre base as well as   bolting of his second rung leaders. Punjab where his party is in power will be a difficult platform to mount a counter offensive from. He is an outsider there and dictatorial by temperament. Sadly for him Punjab typically does not take orders that well !

According to reports he is currently facing about 50 various criminal cases, from plain lying  to big time financial corruption. He is currently on conditional bail In liquor scam case. Bail specifically granted in light of elections. Elections are over and lost! His defence was being financed by Delhi tax payers. How is he going to pay for his defence now and what kind of time can he spare for politics after the full time job of trying to keep himself out of prison ? Most of his inner coterie is also looking at some quality jail time.

Kejriwal is in worse position today as compared to when he started out in 2012. All he has to show for the last 13 years is a personal image in tatters. I would not hold my breath for a swift recovery !

The Canadian Plumber !

 

The Canadian Plumber !

CIA has had many successes to its credit. One that really stands out is its creation of "Taliban". A rabidly fanatic, motivated Islamic religious extremist group fully trained, funded and equipped by the US. Undoubtedly they were instrumental in the demise of Soviet Russia. We all know how that actually panned out in the long run. Apart from the world trade centre mayhem that literally changed the world as we knew it ;we can safely hang on it the pitiable condition of women in Afghanistan; military dictatorship and namesake democracy in Pakistan; massive influx of drugs and automatic weapons in the region; terrorism and holocaust of Kashmir's Hindus in India; strengthening of mullahcracy and fundamentalism in Iran and  destabilization of the entire middle east to name just a few. This support to Taliban has cast an ominously dark shadow on the world events and  I can not point to a single encouraging sign readily.

Break up of the soviet union has not made Europe or the western world any safer. Breakaway republics have pushed the boundaries of the Russian heartland inwards that makes them less secure in the Russian eyes giving rise to new conflicts and jostling for strategic advantage.    We recently witnessed an ICBM fired in anger, flying in the Ukrainian sky. Things could become a lot worse with several European cities within range.Of course neither is Israel any closer to avoiding a precarious existence. All of this is a going concern for the world and it goes without saying that it is costing dearly to avoid a major catastrophe. If US could turn the clock back I am certain knowing what they know now ,They would play a different card than Taliban! Using terrorism as statecraft has very limited use and a definite blow back that can be hard to absorb.

What  can Canada learn from the past? Air India flight 182 was bombed by the Canadian khalistani terrorists in 1985. It killed 268 Canadian, 27 British and 22 Indian nationals. If there is one single moment in history that was the page turner ; this was it. Canada needed to wake up and get cracking ! Sadly  Canada dropped the ball entirely. A few arrests were made  halfheartedly and One , repeat one single individual was convicted of manslaughter who was let out after a few years. This is for the biggest mass murder in the Canadian history and the most lethal act of aviation terrorism in the world at that time since World trade centre in New York had not happened yet !

Incompetence and apathy are very mild words. This is what Treason looks like in my books.

How I wish I could forewarn and tell them that ignoring and making light of this incident will have bad consequences for Canada, only it has already happened. If we dial forward to the present times we have recently seen attacks on a Hindu temple by Khalistan goons ; we have seen them proudly celebrating in the streets of Canada  murder of an elected women prime minister with complete immunity. We have seen hordes rioting in support of Hamas terrorists  and threatening Jewish entities. We have seen excuses for these act provided by people in power.  Extremists just love Canada! How in hell have these elements emboldened themselves? Canada has become a bad joke!

Canada is in north America. This can not change. Her natural alliance and interests lie with USA. Despite who is in office the facts are that Canada's external policy can not be far removed from the US. That means Canada will have an adversarial relation with Russia and will be in direct confrontation with China for the foreseeable future. That is 1/2 of the world against Canada. How intelligent was it to pick a reckless fight with a rising economic power and a democracy-India?  That made it 3/4th of the world! It may be post colonial arrogance or sheer stupidity;likely both in equal measure. Especially when you either do not have proof or can not provide proof in the murder of one Canadian plumber who actually entered the country on false documents and was running from the law with a red corner notice since 2014. A simple search on the internet will show his picture with assault weapons.  A model Canadian plumber or a typical khalistani extremist? It kind of boggles the mind that Canada shielded him by putting him on a no fly list; effectively stalling his extradition!  Political compulsions are no justification for white washing the facts . How did his citizenship get approved in the first place?

 There has been some scaling back recently and a recent shooting of another Canadian plumber; successor of the murdered plumber was not blamed on the Indian prime minister. That is real progress from the previous Canadian actions ! I was amused to see in the media how people got offended by Canada getting equated with Mexico with reference to the Chinese goods and illegals  entering the United states. This offence will look like high praise because Canada is this close  to being equated with Pakistan with reference to giving shelter , legitimacy and political space to extremism.  Be aware it is a slippery path direct to a bottomless pit.

 

 

 

Seize The day!

 

Congress is a political party with a long history. It is without argument that they have had the most number of illustrious and politically important  personalities in history. They have also held power several times after independence. Actually they have formed government for the longest time as compared to any other political party. 

 

Lately however they have lost one election after another and increasingly failed at the hustings in the last two  consecutive polls. There are several reasons for it , but we are not going into that analysis today. We will only focus on one area.

India is a parliamentary democracy , however all the recent elections have been about personalities rather than policies. Congress's illogical infatuation with the Gandhi family has ensured that a "Gandhi" enters the ring  on their behalf. Unfortunately for them their fighter has so far always flattered to deceive. He is under prepared, inexperienced, lacks intellect and suffers massive public perception issues. obviously the results for the hallowed party have been disastrous to say the least. As soon as you decide that they have finally bottomed out, they dive lower and then lower again!

 

Personally I do not consider their political marginalization a good thing. I would prefer an even contest where the voters have at least two good choices if not more. A potent opposition is as important as an empowered government. In an ideal world all elections would be about policies and governance records. You do not need me to tell you that we  live in an imperfect world and an election is round the corner too! What on earth can congress do ?

Congress has never found the courage to show a mirror to the Gandhi family. However the  election Gods are blessing them this time! I am serious! Thanks to the judiciary Rahul Gandhi is no longer a member of the parliament and if congress men sincerely pray very hard, he will not be able to contest elections for the next eight years. Heaven's be praised; that is exactly what the doctor ordered for a complete recovery. This is a windfall of gargantuan proportions! Congress can finally find a deserving candidate to take the field in '24. They are not short on talent either. They may still not breach the defences but if they seize the day they will live to fight again in a stronger and better position.

My nightmare is that a spineless congress will give in to their death wish; push Mrs. Vadra forward, destroying this God sent opportunity and finally burying the party forever. That will only make one Mr. Kejriwal very pleased. Now that is terribly terrifying indeed! Isn't it?

 

Taliban- Old wine , New bottle!

 

Taliban are back! That is if you believe they had ever gone away in the first place. They are who they are and it is simply futile to expect them to have changed in the intervening years that American forces were keeping them in check. US policy of first creating and supporting Taliban against USSR to failing in delivering them a decisive defeat; is quite another discussion altogether.

 

For now we will focus on what we can expect now. Firstly let us look at some comforting thoughts.Back in the heydays of Taliban, they were supported by almost the entire 57 Islamic countries including the very powerful and rich Saudi Arab. They had access to funds, technology, communications and state of art military equipment. Who can forget their use of heavy field guns to destroy massive Bamiyan Buddha world heritage site. Things in the world politics are no longer same. 9/11 has changed American thinking forever. House of Saud is shaky and power has shifted to the crown prince MBS. He has his own compulsions and plans that will find accommodating Taliban very very difficult. Turkey  other Islamic nations also will find it tough to provide Taliban anything more than a sound bite hard to sustain.

 

Iran, the other theocracy has had an uneasy relationship with Taliban. They are happy at US exit from the area but wary of a resurgent Taliban. Iran is not looking for trouble but is not going to give Taliban a free pass either. China has major plans for its economic corridors that dot the areas impacted by these reemerging forces. Moreover China is worried sick about the fallout of Islamic extremist forces getting control right next door to its suppressed Muslim Uighur population. China is completely untrustworthy but unlikely to put all its eggs in the Taliban basket.

 

USSR is no more. Russia however is not exactly a lightweight pushover! She has a  permanent and continuing interest in  her former Asian republics. Under Putin Russia will aggressively defend her turf.They are big players in the area and Taliban are already trying to keep  them in good humour. It will have a calming influence. 

 

So what of the bad boy in the neighbourhood - Pakistan? They are in an unenviable bind if you ask me! On one hand they are licking their chops and salivating at their mouths at the very thoughts of their handpicked boys coming to power in Afghanistan; on the other hand they are shaking in their boots at what it means for their society in terms of drugs, crime and security. Pakistan has already a black mark against them in the bin laden case. Any more monkey business will land them in a very serious hot soup. Their neck is already under the FATF guillotine.Then there is India which has made deep inroads in the Afghan polity by providing extensive infrastructural  help by building  Hospitals, Dams, parliament etc.. They have rather bad history with Taliban but Taliban realizes the salubrious impact such altruistic projects have had on Afghan society. How much of this goodwill will hold is not very clear. Active diplomacy is needed to tell them of Indian Red lines and the fact that It is not the same India of Kandahar hijack days.

 

Afghanistan has a government that can justifiably be said to be broad based. Hamid karzai and now Ashraf Ghani has tried to include different sections in the governance that gives them local and international acceptability. The government also commands about 300000 trained troops. If and it is a big if, Taliban numbering between 50-75,000 do not get any external support and the Afghan national government does; how are they toppling the government?

That does not mean that they can not. It also means that Taliban has immense capacity to cause severe multi level stress on the governance and the security situation.What is important in this situation is to realize that Taliban are Afghan too. It is imperative to engage them across a table or you will be engaging them in a door to door battle. Secondly with Foreign forces leaving the Afghan soil, there is no 'enemy' left. Taliban have absolutely no reason to resort to violence and force their point of view. Let Afghans vote and decide what shape the nation's government will take. 

It is Taliban 2.0. Same Islamic supremacist, misogynistic , medieval ideology  albeit without access to stinger missiles and heavy artillery. They will have a different approach to grabbing power. it is up to us to ensure that Taliban are coaxed back into 21st century rather than they plunging the whole  world back to sixth!

 

 

How to lose an election!

 

Politics is a complex beast. Specially in democracies where the fickle minded public can and often does vote in and vote out political parties and individuals in a mystical ritual that is yet not fully understood. Even by the subject experts; whose job it is in the first place.

Of course these are the professional organizations and maverick individuals that manage the whole process of an election campaign. They control what is said to the voting public; when it is said and who  says it. They decide what spots run on TV, radio and social media. They make herculean efforts to chart plans for billboards across the nation. They weaponize twitter and Facebook effectively. An army is deployed to run campaigns on telephone. All sorts of interviews, write ups and sympathetic stories are innocuously placed in media. Voting blocs are created and nurtured by these experts and they decide what statement or policy of the opponent is to be attacked so as to garner the maximum impact. 

Massive campaign funds are generated by fund raisers. Election rallies and meetings with influencers are organized meticulously. Debating points are extensively researched and drummed into the candidates.  Favours of all kind are sought and are called in. It is all part science, part psyops , part financial sledge hammering and a large dollop of voodoo! Rumour has it that candidate's policies and  election manifesto has something to do with it too! Although I am not quite so sure of that !

Whichever way you look at it the fact is that even for candidates with high winning probability an extensive  and well developed support system is deployed to coach and mentor. Their hand is held every step of the way to the finish line. Which of course is to win the optimum prize. Elections!

What happens if the election is lost!

Sadly there is no script for it currently. As is the ways of the world all the previous support system crumbles overnight for  a loser. They are naked under a spotlight and on their own. There is no one backing, no one providing help or guidance and they can not hide. There is a business opportunity going abegging for those  very same election experts; if you know what I mean.

Individuals and political parties in general mostly behave with acumen, foresight and introspection after the first shock waves have passed. Although the loser is not in a frame of mind to heed any advise but mostly saner heads prevail. Not so at other times. We have witnessed the losing party accuse the election authorities of bias; declare voting machines to be hacked and reprogrammed; blame police forces of threatening the voters; missing votes for self and fake votes for the opponent. They even lament the naivety of the voters. Everything but themselves is pointed fingers at in their frustration.  Mostly  society treats  these claims with the disdain they deserve, since the voters know who they actually voted for.

Democracies can deal with more serious charges  with aplomb and relative ease.   Courts exist and aggrieved parties are encouraged to approach them to redress their grievances. They are heard on the basis of evidence and in accordance with the constitution and laws of the land. There is a reason why the three branches of the government ; legislative, executive and judiciary are independent of each other and are meant to counter balance each other. 

Of all the people POTUS should comprehend the envelope democracies work within. To be absolutely transparent I personally trust his opponent  a lot less than him and had hoped for his win but I am not a voter in the US so he did not get my vote. Whatever knee jerk reactions and the verbal diarrhea his recent loss precipitated; he should have realized that  the final authority rests with the court of law. Once his petitions were found to be unsubstantiated, he should have bowed out gracefully. Alas!

He came totally unhinged instead. I honestly believe that due to the shock of the election loss he has suffered a sudden mental degradation not unlike a heart stroke where the heart is not fully functional. In this case his intellect is seriously impaired but I am not a doctor. I would certainly request  medical intervention and evaluation in this case. He may well be certifiable if he is lucky! He might escape the criminal proceedings being contemplated against him by entering an insanity plea.

At the very least send him immediately to the political boot camp to learn one thing and one thing only - how to lose an election! After all he is still the president for another ten days or so and you never know what other idiocy he is planning in his feverish mind .

Snake Oil Salesmen!

Exit polls like politicians have a bad rep. There are the usual allegations of them being sponsored and suffering from inherent biases, right from collection of data to processing and interpreting them. No one bats an eyelid if they are proven wrong by the actual results. Fact is that psephology has reached a level of refinement where it will give you the exact direction the results are headed even when the numbers are off mark.

Delhi assembly election results were obvious on the day of the voting itself. Despite the clownish hyperbole and unsubstantiated tall claims of victory from the losing party ,it was clear that exit polls have rained on their parade. What was surprising even to me is the number of seats won by the winner. Based on the massive counter campaign mounted by BJP and quite decent public response to it , I expected them to get to double digits. Of course they are two short of it. So the numbers do not add up and let's see why is that .

Firstly let us take Congress. When you get a zero on top of getting another zero in the previous attempt; when over 90% of your candidates lose their deposits and when your vote share falls to 4.32 % ,something is not wrong, everything is ! There is a good theory that congress did not bring their A game as it would eat into AAP's vote share and that would help their national rival BJP. Essentially it would be true if congress had the ability to put up a fight. They don't. If this theory is true it is the worst thing Congress could have done. It would only hasten their demise. Marred by poor central leadership, handicapped by petty internal party politics, endemic cronyism  and  their history of corruption scandals. Congress has lost the faith of the electorate. Their traditional Muslim vote bank and numerically strong economically weaker strata of society has deserted them lock stock and barrel  for AAP. They need to realize that they are done. Done for good! Irrelevant Congress needs to reinvent itself. Half measures like mother and son taking turns to lead the party are not going to cut it. If Congress wishes to survive Gandhi's need to be pensioned now! That includes deemed Gandhi's, meaning Vadra's ! Thank them and let them go! This is of course only the beginning. But when they get to it let me know and I will give them further advice. Something tells me that they are never going to trouble me ever.

Next join me in congratulating BJP on their unqualified success in this election. It was so hard to loose but they managed to do it comprehensively. It really took five long years of doing absolutely nothing . You know how hard that is, but they did the impossible. They only have  themselves to thank for it.

I do not know when will they realise, if ever, that they can not win every election by putting up Modi's picture on the bill board. Time was Delhi BJP and its previous incarnation Jan Sangh had stalwarts at the helm. Madan Lal Khurana, Kedarnath Sawhney, Sahib Singh Verma easily come to mind. Today they have no one even approaching that stature. To be fair they could have roped in Arun Jaitley or very well liked Sushma Swaraj from the centre but both sadly passed away some time before the elections.

For every M G Ramachandran and N T Rama Rao there are dozens of Manoj Tiwari's. He is such a lightweight that early on in the campaign he got disdainfully branded as "Rinkiya Ke Papa", and it stuck. Not entirely without reason, since he does not have much else to his credit. Contrast that with the "terrorist " tag Kejriwal shook with aplomb and made his accusers look bad as bonus. Does Manoj Tiwari even know anything about Delhi ?

Every third voter in Delhi is a BJP voter. Now traditionally this core voter base was largely made up of Punjabi community that migrated after the partition of India and the business community of Delhi. BJP needs to have a look at a calendar. Surprise ! Surprise ! It is the year 2020! That Punjabi who migrated from Pakistan is now nursing his third and fourth generation. Muscular nationalism does not, repeat does not resonate with this new generation in the same way as their parents. Am I making a big explosive revelation? Surely I am not the first to discover that Kejriwal belongs to the same business community that forms the critical core of BJP . He has also packed his party with members from his community. Satyendra Jain and Swati Maliwal are well known public personalities. There are many others with strong base in Delhi. Was it a co incidence or was it a master stroke to slice away BJP vote share. I will leave for BJP to decipher.

Demographics is another Achilles heel. It is no secret that Delhi has grown exponentially. It has attracted a massive influx of people from all over the country to pursue education and jobs. Sadly it is far from being a melting pot. The influx has created several distinct pockets wildly different on cultural, social, economic and political scales. What has BJP done to communicate with these diverse groups? Just one case in point. Most of the recent  commotion at JNU in the run up to this election was led by students from outside of Delhi. Without taking any sides my question to Delhi BJP is how have you reached these vocal and energetic student groups that are a huge influence on their peers and are most likely voters in Delhi. I know the answer. BJP has done nothing except brand them after the fact. There is no inclusion, no preemption and no out reach. Just dealing through ABVP is not enough. It has only deepened the divide. Although they are mostly left inspired and left was really left out in this election with CPI polling 0.02 % and CPM polling 0.01 %. Their combined vote share below that of NOTA which came in at 0.4 %. Electorally insignificant to the result yet the massive noise they created and the inimical press it generated had very bad optics and generally showed BJP in an unfavourable light.

I realize Manoj Tiwari was para dropped on Delhi BJP as a nod to the sizable Bhojpuri linguistic group. However its downside is that the local leadership or whatever is left of it has felt under valued. Has BJP learned anything at all from the Kiran Bedi saga ? Please realize that the infamous 'surge" in voting for the party  after 3 pm either did not happen at all or was so insignificant as to be of no electoral value. That really means either  the voter is apathetic which is bad or what is worse, BJP workers are. For a cadre based party that spells disaster.

Emasculated local leadership and the non existent leadership mentoring programme ensured that the chinks in AAP's armour were left unexpoilted for want of a dynamic leader. There was no CM face to take on Kejriwal. He had a virtual free run to score as he pleased. His strategic mistakes were not taken advantage of. He was smart enough not to engage BJP on Shaheen bagh yet BJP failed miserably to answer him  on Bijli -pani - school. Who was asking where exactly these schools are ? Who was showing Kejriwal's false marketing up ? No one was because BJP had found Shaheen Bagh! That was to be their be all and end all. How pathetic! It would still be some consolation if that matter was handled in a befitting manner. Even with a compliant central government BJP failed to get much out of Shaheen Bagh as they allowed them all the initiative. They let Shaheen Bagh narrative to take hold and got shown up as  all talk and no action weaklings.

"Modi is BJP; BJP is Modi" is a very slippery path to the bottom. If you don't believe me ask congress about it. Prashant kishor may or may not have guided the AAP party but BJP needs to run a modern training programme for their leaders to learn what to say , when to say it and how to say it. Anyone that fails to attend the programme should be barred from opening their mouth. Better ask most of them to shut up. 

IT cell needs to be brought up to speed and led by a competent strategist. You must trust me on this, BJP needs some very serious media outreach. I have not seen a greater barrage of bad press against BJP in a long time. International press too.  BJP should never ever trot out the freebies as a reason for their loss unless they want to deceive themselves. Explain to me how you lost the up market Greater kailash by a margin of nearly 17,000 votes and win  the lower middle class Karawal nagar constituency?

That brings me to the winner who certainly does not need my advice. AAP is an enigma wrapped in mystery and sort of defies definition. So  let us see what kind of a beast AAP is. To me it is a chameleon  that paints itself in the colour it needs to hunt. What started out as a contrarian party has morphed into a " Hindu" party. Or has it? AAP has successfully usurped BJP's tag of "party with a Difference" by making it " new kind of politics". It has successfully cut the ground under BJP's Hindu credentials by bringing in "Lord Hanuman"; the greatest ever devotee of Sri Ram ! AAP has successfully become the darling of Muslims who tend to vote en bloc. I think he played his cards very well by focusing the election on water , electricity and education and then spicing it up with his tricks.

AAP also has a Congress face. Sort of the congress that congress is not. It has completely appropriated Congresses captive voting blocks by using the congress tactic of doling largesse masquerading as social welfare to enhance their electoral chances. For example AAP government selectively paid salaries only to Muslim clergy, a tactic straight out of Congress play book. Kejriwal's studious silence on Shaheen bagh and tasking his deputy to speak in its favour was a master stroke. BJP got roughly about 39% of the vote share that leaves the odd 60% and AAP very smartly and  selectively doled out sops like free bus travel for women ,etc. to keep voters engaged and hooked to it. For all intents and purposes AAP is the new congress. It certainly has got their entire voter base. I am amazed at congress though. BJP is not decimating them AAP is; at least in Delhi. Why are they smug about AAP's win?

What is a common thread in all this is  that all these parties are selling their brands of snake oil ! A supposed cure for every thing except that there is no such thing. BJP has the MODI brand. Did not work on Delhi, did not work last time either . Congress insists on selling the GANDHI brand way after its sell by date. It has not worked anywhere in a very long time. Aap is selling the KEJRI brand. This new brand of snake oil did not find many takers in Punjab but so far seems to be selling very well in Delhi. There is one thing they all need to understand though. If you want to be a one man army like Congress , be prepared for the fate of Congress. People will eventually find out that snake oil does not cure.