Taliban are back! That is if you believe they had ever gone away in the first place. They are who they are and it is simply futile to expect them to have changed in the intervening years that American forces were keeping them in check. US policy of first creating and supporting Taliban against USSR to failing in delivering them a decisive defeat; is quite another discussion altogether.
For now we will focus on what we can expect now. Firstly let us look at some comforting thoughts.Back in the heydays of Taliban, they were supported by almost the entire 57 Islamic countries including the very powerful and rich Saudi Arab. They had access to funds, technology, communications and state of art military equipment. Who can forget their use of heavy field guns to destroy massive Bamiyan Buddha world heritage site. Things in the world politics are no longer same. 9/11 has changed American thinking forever. House of Saud is shaky and power has shifted to the crown prince MBS. He has his own compulsions and plans that will find accommodating Taliban very very difficult. Turkey other Islamic nations also will find it tough to provide Taliban anything more than a sound bite hard to sustain.
Iran, the other theocracy has had an uneasy relationship with Taliban. They are happy at US exit from the area but wary of a resurgent Taliban. Iran is not looking for trouble but is not going to give Taliban a free pass either. China has major plans for its economic corridors that dot the areas impacted by these reemerging forces. Moreover China is worried sick about the fallout of Islamic extremist forces getting control right next door to its suppressed Muslim Uighur population. China is completely untrustworthy but unlikely to put all its eggs in the Taliban basket.
USSR is no more. Russia however is not exactly a lightweight pushover! She has a permanent and continuing interest in her former Asian republics. Under Putin Russia will aggressively defend her turf.They are big players in the area and Taliban are already trying to keep them in good humour. It will have a calming influence.
So what of the bad boy in the neighbourhood - Pakistan? They are in an unenviable bind if you ask me! On one hand they are licking their chops and salivating at their mouths at the very thoughts of their handpicked boys coming to power in Afghanistan; on the other hand they are shaking in their boots at what it means for their society in terms of drugs, crime and security. Pakistan has already a black mark against them in the bin laden case. Any more monkey business will land them in a very serious hot soup. Their neck is already under the FATF guillotine.Then there is India which has made deep inroads in the Afghan polity by providing extensive infrastructural help by building Hospitals, Dams, parliament etc.. They have rather bad history with Taliban but Taliban realizes the salubrious impact such altruistic projects have had on Afghan society. How much of this goodwill will hold is not very clear. Active diplomacy is needed to tell them of Indian Red lines and the fact that It is not the same India of Kandahar hijack days.
Afghanistan has a government that can justifiably be said to be broad based. Hamid karzai and now Ashraf Ghani has tried to include different sections in the governance that gives them local and international acceptability. The government also commands about 300000 trained troops. If and it is a big if, Taliban numbering between 50-75,000 do not get any external support and the Afghan national government does; how are they toppling the government?
That does not mean that they can not. It also means that Taliban has immense capacity to cause severe multi level stress on the governance and the security situation.What is important in this situation is to realize that Taliban are Afghan too. It is imperative to engage them across a table or you will be engaging them in a door to door battle. Secondly with Foreign forces leaving the Afghan soil, there is no 'enemy' left. Taliban have absolutely no reason to resort to violence and force their point of view. Let Afghans vote and decide what shape the nation's government will take.
It is Taliban 2.0. Same Islamic supremacist, misogynistic , medieval ideology albeit without access to stinger missiles and heavy artillery. They will have a different approach to grabbing power. it is up to us to ensure that Taliban are coaxed back into 21st century rather than they plunging the whole world back to sixth!
