Monday, May 9, 2011

Deep inside Pakistan ......

" Na juhkne wale hain , na dabne wale hain; Hum pakistan ki izzat aur azmat ke rakhwale hain".  Thus goes a famous military song of the Pakistan army.". " We will not bend and we will not buckle; because we are the guardians of Pakistan's dignity & sovereignty," it says. It did not ring true on that day in Dacca and it certainly did not sound right on that day in Abbottabad. Every nation has an army but  it is only the  Pakistan army that has a nation. Virtually by its collective throat!

In this age of skepticism , where belief and trust are getting rarer with each passing day , most do not believe everything dished out by Obama about Osama. But if you are among those that believe that Osama was not  in that safe house in Abbottabad; you may as well stop reading now! This piece assumes he was.

 This is an embarrassing time  for the people of Pakistan. They are being ridiculed; insulted; called deceptive , cheats and the epicenter of terrorism. The fact that an infamous terrorist chief was found living comfortably and running his bombing business right from the safety of a Pakistani town crawling with intelligence and military personnel; does not look too good!  He was living  right within a handshaking distance from Pakistan Military Academy while Pakistan army was collecting a huge service fee . Ostensibly to catch him. So whichever way you slice it and whatever spin you put on it; Pakistan is complicit or inefficient. Combine this with other known cases where Army has turned a blind eye or even encouraged  several other bin ladens in their midst; they look more crooked than complicit or inefficient. Daud Ibrahim's Clifton , Karachi address is known to every child except the super sleuths of ISI. His daughter marries the son of Pakistan Ex Cricket captain Miandad. Yet ISI can not find any trace of him. Azhar masud a convicted terrorist is roaming free; Hafiz syed is encouraged to run terrorists into India with active help from army. Mullah Omar and Ayman Al Jawahri are also believed to be in Pakistan. How should any one give Pakistan  benefit of doubt?

If all these accusations make Pakistani's angry , they should be. They should be very very angry indeed. But only at themselves! How did they reach such a bad place? Ten years after they joined the war on terror , they are being asked again, " are you with us or against us?" Not again for God's sake! This is high time that people of Pakistan took  stock of the situation and evaluate the central role their army has had in bringing them this dishonour,and loss of national pride. Pakistan army is not a sacred cow and asking questions of them in not treason. If it is not done by people themselves , an outside force will put the beast down. That I am certain will not be exactly pleasant. Political class in Pakistan is still intent on creating a verbal smoke screen and obfuscating the issue. Maybe they are afraid.  Makes sense in a country where Political murder has been perfected to the level of fine art ; it is better to be economical with truth.  After all who wants to be another Benazir ?

Let us dial back & see how this journey commenced. Soon as Pakistan came into being in 1947 its army took on a three times bigger India over Kashmir by sending irregulars and soldiers in civvies . This stratagem became  a recurring theme in coming years. Generals completely miscalculated Indian response and worse still they  over depended on getting the support among Kashmir Muslims. Suffice it to say that lack of  local support with swift Indian counter ensured a failure.  Pakistan could not win Kashmir however  they won a permanent enemy  on the eastern borders of Pakistan. Without even securing strategic  water sources. The  only reason Pakistan wants Kashmir in the  first place. Result was a failed  adventure.

Larger adversary thus created proved a boon to the army,  which continued to demand bigger and bigger share of national budget to deal with it. Only to the detriment of people's interests. As if this pressure was not enough they went on first to stage a coup and give themselves unbridled power  to sign their own checks . Then believing in their own propaganda of "great Muslim warrior' vs. "weak Hindu Bania"; launched operation Gibraltar. Yet another misadventure. Generals boasting to the nation that they will be sipping evening tea in Delhi soon. Only a few days into battle and  the boast deflated. They had to deploy entire Pakistan forces in defensive formations, scampering  to save ..... Lahore!  Everything except one measly ill equipped division that was left to defend East Pakistan. It is another matter That India did not take advantage of this in 1965. They did so in 1971. When these great generals made the same mistakes and some new blunders. Starting with raping,  killing and looting their own citizens and ending by shamelessly surrendering 90,000 troops to the adversary. 

A Bangladeshi friend commented the other day that Pakistan army wins nothing except when they fight their own people. Very harsh but worth pondering. 1971 was a watershed year for Pakistan. The "Theory of Pakistan"  had finally died an ignominious death at Dacca.  Pakistan had experimented with war including civil and guerrilla; democracy ; dictatorship everything was tried . They ended with half of what they originally started out with. Something was wrong somewhere. From the ashes of Jinnah's Pakistan a new Progressive Pakistan that believed in federalism, democracy and rule of law could have been created.  It was not to be . The opportunity to regenerate was completely missed . Instead this new Pakistan remained as confrontational and morphed into  what can only charitably be called a security state. Paranoid about India; they declared," we'll eat grass but make the bomb". So they proceeded to do exactly that even if the road they took was  very slippery and grass was meant for  the public to eat not  for the Generals. They had their usual biryani and kababs with chota peg ! Later in Zia ul haq's time  chota  peg went underground but designer suits and corner plots took centre stage.

All nuclear programmes are clandestine as was Pakistan's. However it was the only country running an underground nuclear walmart. A.Q.Khan , favorite son of the army and revered father of the Islamic bomb got caught with his pants down stealing and then selling fissile material and nuclear tech. Even then the matter was hushed up by Pakistan denying any official knowledge of his illegal activities.  White lies of course. But even if it was true question is  who  in the God's name has charge in Pakistan? How can the world trust that terrorists will not get a hold of some dirty bomb?


Why does the pakistani security establishment mount  such risk prone adventures? Let us look at some theories they have. "Kashmir", a complete thesis can be written on it. However suffice it to say that army has milked it at will. It is an  "Islamic" issue. It is the" Life line" ( shah rug) of Pakistan. It is an issue of " in alienable right of self determination". It is "unfinished business" of Partition and it is a "freedom  struggle". Army needs your money ; army needs your lives; army needs the nation to stop using their minds as to why. Thank you!  Even after making the entire defence doctrine; planning and resource allocation a hostage  to this one issue the army has not got Kashmir. Not yet ; but it has managed to give ammunition for independence of Baluchistan. As if Bangladesh was not enough. How can you tell a baluch to honour the agreement signed by his Khans and Sardars when you want a  Kashmiri to ignore his King's agreement with India ? Baluch argument for leaving Pakistan is a mirror image of Pakistan's argument for Kashmir. Arguing that Baluch people's opinion was not sought before their future was hocked to Pakistan; Just like kashmiri people had no say in Maharaja's decision . Of course using helicopter gunships on them and ruthlessly murdering Baluch leaders has not endeared Pakistan army to them.  However Baluch people thank Pakistan army for giving constant sustenance to their argument for secession. It is quite lucky that Army supported  Khalistan moment  fizzled out. Had Pakistan army succeeded in that venture; Lahore would today have been the capital of Khalistan.

Other big theory that stems from these ideas is " Strategic depth".  So Pakistan is not wide enough for the army which needs room to retreat on its east west axis. Danger lies in the east and sadly Afghanistan is in the way on the west .So let's go grab it. Or at least have someone in control there that will allow us to come and go  as we please! Not only is this theory  a defeatist theory that supposes India will overrun Pakistan forces in war and they will use the afghan space to retreat; regroup and counter attack  India with their strategic assets( nuclear!), it has many other holes in it. Hello! if Pakistan is already over run ; what are you saving now? And why do you think that this new territory will escape reprisals by the invading force specially when you launch your "strategic assets" from it ? When this new territory comes under attack , where will they go on next? Uzbekistan !!! What are they planning -  WW III ? Don't you think a better theory is to work at lowering tensions that eliminates the need for going to  war in the first place? At best it is a "mad" theory. Mutually assured destruction! So far in the last twenty years obsession with creating influence and space in Afghanistan has seen the rise of unbridled violent gun culture; wide spread drug menace and daily occurrence  of  suicide bombings in Pakistan. They of course have been successful in creating  a lot of influence with "Taliban". We'll check how that has panned out for the people of Pakistan.

Creation of different  terrorist strategic assets has so far not helped Pakistan's national interests. In a pitched battle they are  of no use and as seen countless times in encounters with security forces in Kashmir; Kargil hiil tops  and later on during Mumbai attacks. They have not made India  slow down a bit. It is still one of the fastest growing economies. It is still rated way way above Pakistan. Its political stature continues to grow and it is still  breathing down Pakistani necks. India continues to be  what pakistani nightmares are made of!  I wonder if Pakistan Army has  heard , "if you can not lick them join them". After sixty years of failed armed misadventures, may be it is time for a change in tactics? In kargil misadventure Pakistani P.M.  had to go plead forgiveness and beg for US intervention. He had to agree on complete withdrawal and eat a lot of crow to save a full scale invasion on the eastern front. Pakistan Army had sold the nation short but more was yet to come. Army eventually stuck another blow at the nation - a coup. All to save its generals from a court martial. Attack on Mumbai has permanently sealed Pakistan's image as the epicenter of terror and a state sponsor of terrorism. At the time of writing the chief of ISI was wanted for murder in an American court of law ! it would be comical if it was not so bizarre! This official sanction of terror as a state policy has made the entire Pakistani territory a fertile nursery & a safe sanctuary for  terror groups. It has deformed the Pakistani society to such an extent that it  is now polarized between Muslim vs. pure Muslim vs. purer Muslim. Each sect and faction vying to outdo the other in virulence and violence. There are official terrorists, there are unofficial terrorist and there are state sponsored terrorists. No one knows who is controlling whom. Praying congregations in mosques are routinely bombed to oblivion and rabidly fanatic religious killers become a celebrity.  They are feted and garlanded by lawyers inside a court of law. Forget about  what the world thinks; how proud should a Pakistani feel on this count?

America choose Pakistan over India decades ago for very long term political , economic, geographic and strategic reasons. Pakistan has to thank the army for it too! "Friends not, masters" ! Ooops !  "Friends,  not masters" ! Some of those reasons are no longer valid but some others have assumed a greater importance.  They have invested sixty years and billions of dollars on Pakistan. No matter what happens to Pakistani people and Pakistani nation  or whatever the composition of its government ; they are there to stay. They will  want to exact a return on their investment.  It is a marriage for life brokered by  the Pakistan army . Saying "Go amreeka Go" will not make them go. The choice for Pakistan is to be together  with them in a hug or in a handcuff! Operation Geronimo proves it. Like 1971 Pakistan is again on the verge of making history or not.  It is again a watershed year.  It is true that most opportunities come disguised as challenges. So people of Pakistan, face the truth.  This is one of those times. Blaming all your troubles on CIA; Zionist forces and RAW will lead you  to miss this opportunity to change your fate . Someone will  again beg billions of alms in your name ;  hock your future; misuse the funds and all you will have to show for it will be  a tag of "Terrorist" or the membership of exclusive No -Fly list . This is your opportunity to take responsibility and assume charge. ISI and army must be cleaned before they will come clean. The role of  army must to defend the borders  not create trouble on it. They must be answerable to Parliament and certainly not direct foreign policy. Whatever propaganda you may have heard ; the biggest enemy of Pakistan since 1947 has been its confrontational policies dictated by the army .  From  the perspective of  the outside world the  recruiting slogan of Al - Qaeda and the motto of Pakistan army is the same, "Jihad fi sabil Allah".  Sadly the operational line that separates them looks blurred and mostly non existent as well . Keeping silent  as this moment  will mean agreeing with them.

 Not everything is lost yet. I hear some very sage voices coming from Pakistan . They are asking all the questions that need to  be asked. But will people listen and act ? If people power can make Musharraf go why can't they rein in army's irresponsible patterns now ?  It can happen because  these  sane voice allow for  hope.  Surely  deep  inside Pakistan there is a  beautiful , progressive and  trustworthy nation lurking. Only civic activism can bring out. Carpe diem ! Seize the day!