Impact!

 

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Okinawa in Japan hosts the largest fleet in the US navy- the seventh fleet! Nixon the infamous Watergate president was looking to get in bed with China. Pakistan was the middle man facilitating and Pakistan was in serious trouble with India threatening to run over their east wing ( now Bangladesh). That was 1971. Cold war was alive.Nixon ordered the seventh fleet to sail to bay of Bengal ; put pressure on India and give military relief to Pakistan. It almost worked! 

In response, Soviet Russia honouring the pact she had with India; moved a flotilla  from Vladivostok; including frigates and destroyers to interception coordinates and checkmated the US deployment. US had no game left short of igniting a third world war! US 7th fleet never arrived in the Bay of Bengal and India swiftly bifurcated Pakistan. On reflection that was a big headache cured for Pakistan and one more headache added to India. That however is quite a story for another day! 

The lesson for India is that US is never to be trusted. Secondly US will always favour Pakistan for the simple reason that Pakistan can be bought cheaply to do it's bidding. India need not get confrontational but must always keep her antennas up; options open and be ready to exercise them.

Let us come back to the present times.So recently that  general Munir;  who awarded the rank of field  marshal to himself was at the white house. It was very intriguing at the time but now things are looking a little clearer. Pak prime minister accompanied him to US too. There are of course reports of the Pak nukes being controlled by the US or the US nukes being stored in Pakistan! It kind of tallies with how the Indian offensive during May 2025 came swiftly to a halt as soon as Kirana hills ; a suspected nuclear store site was hit by the Indian missiles. We will ignore this theory today.

The paki duo's visit I feel was to thrash out the Security deal between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. America has remained absent from the actual signing  but I see a clear CIA footprint here. 

Ostensibly it is marketed as a defence pact for Saudi Arabia and against Israel's muscular middle east policies. A little examination does not bear this out.

Firstly Pakistan has been providing paid security services in Saudi Arabia for long and there is nothing new except new verbiage put on paper.

Secondly Pakistan against Israel in no contest whatsoever.You do not need to be a military expert to know that Israel with her iron dome, long range weaponry and F35 stealth platforms will lick Pakistan with one hand tied behind its back.

If Pakistan had any stomach for a nuclear engagement,  it would have been  used against India by now. They do not have the delivery system for Israel anyway. So providing a nuke umbrella to Saudi Arabia does not cut it. It is a false flag operation.

USA would strictly control any military engagement between Israel and Saudi Arabia; two of their closest allies. Pakistan's role may be zero to none.

So the question is who is this pact meant for? I would say it is directly targeting Iran ! US animosity towards Iran is not hidden. Since US embassy in Tehran was seized so long ago and shah dethroned; Iran has been a US target. Iran is also at odds with Israel and we have recently seen an exchange of long range fire between the two. What usually is papered over but happens to be the most important factor is the historical rivalry Saudi Arabia has with Iran for leadership of  the ummah. There is a Shia / Sunni factor in play as well.

USA recently did another little thing! So they have long sanctioned Iran; putting hurdles in their energy sales. That was Iran's main export and which directly impacted Saudi's petroleum market share. 

Then there is this India angle. India has been developing chabahar port in Iran. This port will facilitate trade with Afghanistan and  erstwhile Soviet Asian republics. This port avoids Pakistan entirely and helps Iran economically. The port was exempt from US sanctions till now. This exemption is to be withdrawn soon. This exposes India to the US sanctions; puts  breaks on Iranian ambitions with this port and gives a helping hand to Gwadar port in Baluchistan to usurp chabahar 's role! It potentially helps Pakistan economically and strengthens it's control on Baluchistan and exploit their resources.

To be honest; I am not so sure Pakistan army will be  very effective against Iranian forces in case of a direct conflict. Remember Iraq - Iran conflict not too long ago. Iraq was supported by entire west and the arab world;  Iranian forces however did pretty well all by themselves.

It is technically possible for Saudi Arabia to provide military personnel to Pakistan under this pact;  but if they had  personnel available why would they import so many immigrants to their country? Other than that they have provided cash and kind to Pakistan for long. They do not make any military hardware. Pakistan gets it from Turkey, China and USA.

You can see how this game is being played by USA by throwing some crumbs and a bone or two at Pakistan. Pakistan has wet dreams of their cash cow Afghanistan! Milk has dried there. They are looking for their sugar daddies to open their wallets once again. Pakistan army would do anything for money and an opportunity to make US look the other way while they do their thing in Baluchistan and across their eastern borders in India!

Immediate benefit to Saudi Arabia is that Pakistan military machine will be able to engage the Houthi rebellion. Pakistan army has long experience of constraining low intensity internal conflicts. They have conducted military  operations against bengali's; Pathans and Baluchi people. Bengal they lost only because India intervened. They however have been able to successfully  hold both Baluchistan and NWFP freedom fighters at bay in  protracted campaigns.

Overall  security for the Saudi state will still be in the US hands. There is no  known credible immediate threat to it anyway. Israel has no plans or even a need to engage Saudi Arabia. Saudi need to show concern for the ummah requires them to take a position from time to time. They do that by making appropriate noises. Saudi's do nothing more and definitely take no military action at all.

Just day to day local armed houthi challenge and such will be now taken on by the Pakistan army units legally. This is the crux of this pact. This is where it's impact will be apparent. This campaign does require a ground offensive; a lot of boots and the ability to receive a lot of body bags! American lives matter; Saudi lives are too rich to die in desert. Pakistan army can  supply those bodies as long as the generals get to make some riyals!

India will need to be watchful but I do not envisage Saudi Arabia to do anything wild in case hostilities break out between India and Pakistan. As far as this pact developing into an islamic NATO is concerned.... don't make me laugh! There is no ummah, period! They are individual states more often cross with each other than together! Let them sort out Palestine question first!

 

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End Game!

 "Buddha under the tree of knowledge" 

Still Life.     Digital photo.

Ashutosh kaul - 2025

Amrita pritam once described the outermost limit of sorrow as the situation where the 'ink in your pen too dries out'. You  are so sad that you can not even write about it. Your tears would have dried out long ago.

I remembered this as I was recently lounging on the undulating deck of the lake house. Water waves from the lake were sloshing the sides of the deck and the moon was shining in the night sky. I could see the deep blue of the sky adorned with twinkling stars as far as my gaze reached. There was no other sound , just myself, stars and the gentle lake!

Life is what you make of it. All of my troubles at that moment just evaporated.Gone! I realized I still have it in me to take sorrow head on. My ink is yet to dry; even my tears are well and truly alive! We are not going to need them today anyway.

I was in grade 3 when Ms. Kusum, the music teacher at our school called me out of my classroom. We went up to the music room on the first floor. She had  heard my humming and wanted to see how good I can be. Her harmonium was all set up and she asked me to sing. Anything. I sang a few lines from a cabaret number pictured on Helen.  Then she requested another song. This time I picked a Rafi song. Remember I was in grade 3. This went on for a bit and I still remember the look of increasing disappointment on her face. She had failed to discover the next singing sensation. I was never going to be a singer! I am in tune but my voice is just short of horrible. 

People that know me , know that I hum all the time. Even during a major crisis a tune is playing in my mind. Kusum madam that day left me with  her loving advice to keep humming always. I have kept it up. I was very young and did not realize the disappointment then.  Later I complained silently! God should had given me a good voice.

Only recently have I found how beneficial humming is for your mental health.It also has a salubrious impact on  other physical parameters including your cardiac health.That's the gift God wanted me to have and made Kusum madam deliver it!

My teacher Mr.Jugal Kishore Sharma; who is still in touch with me sent for me to come over to grade 8 class room. I was in grade 6. The teacher thought highly of me and asked me to speak extempore on " movement is life"! There I was under a spotlight. Junior most lecturing to the senior most! I did mumble something about dead make no movement. I was nervous and hot under the collar but that day taught me a systematic process of thinking. I am still learning but  God did send guidance to Sir who created the opportunity for me to elevate.

Later in life I found myself  a student in Nainital. A smaller place and a  nondescript educational institution was my fate. I seriously resented it but had no wriggle room. Why me? Why?

Two years down the line I had developed a lifelong love of poetry and won a national scholarship. Money I used to fund 4 years of my art education. 3 out of 4 years I did not take a single cent from home. Drawing material is very expensive and in those pre computer days everything was to be done in real time. Nobody had heard of virtual design. I would have been hard pressed if that scholarship did not exist. I used up a tonne of expensive drawing material that God provided by sending me to Nainital. I see this clearly now!

I came out of the university and got a job that my class mate recommended me for. She got selected from campus but  her family was immigrating to the US and their papers had come in. She told her soon to be ex boss about a brilliant designer- me! Thing to note is that she did not recommend her special friend. I have always wondered about it. Apparently being a gentle, self less person is not without merit. God does see everything! 

I applied  for a project in Russia as a long shot; with zero experience of large projects and that too in a foreign work environment. I got an interview; surprise ! The project director turned out to be a neighbour and knew my father well. He did not let this on during the interview and I did not know him from Adam. I got to be the project designer without knowing much. Good luck; God; dad's stellar reputation ; call it whatever! I was so unqualified that I would not have hired myself if it was my decision! That's how God helped me earn a reputation for being an expert in foreign projects. Later on I worked on several  such projects in Europe as well as on the Indian sub continent. Needed help came from above!

Era immediately post this project happens to be the lowest point in my life as I lost pretty much everything I had been working towards for years. It's devastation is still a daily challenge. We will not go there today. But listen I got hired by the Government of India to be their design consultant on the strength of my Russian experience. Pretty sweet , isn't it?

What happened in one interview actually was surreal. It was for another job and I was in the waiting area with some other candidates when I was called in. The vice president, HR interviewing me was ex army; a major general to boot. As I entered he said; "come in Mr. Kaul, I have already selected you, I just wanted to see you in person"! Seriously! That was the interview. Rest of the time we had coffee and he told me about his various campaigns that he commanded. Just like that and  I was the graphics manager for the Hyatt Group!

Apparently he had a very high opinion of my community and the fact that our community had to be  refugees in our own land because of Islamic terrorism in Kashmir made him sympathetic. 

In perspective God sending me to be born in that smelly by lane of  old  Srinagar city; to lower middle class parents and into a much persecuted minority community was just part of a grand design. Do you see that?

J Walter Thompson is a very big communications company; very old and very reputable. Somehow I got hired. Unknown to me was that my boss had the reputation of going through a lot of teams. He would sacrifice a team member to save his position. I was to be his second in command!

I was given a project second day on the job.  The client Motorola had rejected thirteen design submissions and we were just a whisker away from losing the project entirely.  That had major implications on other jobs in the pipeline. Big bucks were involved. Mega bucks! I was hired to be the sacrificial lamb that would be chopped when we did loose the project! I was told all of this later by other people; much later!

 Completely unaware of the danger, I did what I did and rest is history. My career  within the organization boomed on that one design with back lit circular blue ceiling feature and metallic wall panels. Sounds very cheesy and you will not catch me doing it today. Back then though this Client not only ate out of my hands while I worked for JWT; It gave me projects worth a lot  when I started my own practice. That led to me accessing  funds to be able to come abroad! I also became the choice designer for all tech clients.

You can not miss the hand of God in all this. A dodgy boss; angry client;  rookie designer.... How did it all come up smelling roses?

So back to my starry night. I am not exactly a fan of the city I currently live in. My hand really got forced as I was finding my home town unbearably choking for reasons we will not go into today.

I really  can not start to sum up all the blessings I have had ; in all other facets of life too! I feel thankful to many individuals that became the agent of God's benevolence towards me. Too many to count here. I have not done much to deserve this amazing experience that I have had.

God saw my challenges and trials of the past few months and God decided to give me some peace; where I am ! A lot of peace, lot of clarity, strength and  a sense of balance was on offer as well. There can be no other explanation to it. It is God showing me light!

I trust God to provide exactly what I need; what I deserve and what I have earned! Right on time! God will retain what is not for me and  God will provide in abundance what is meant for me! All I have to do is what I have to!  Just be completely honest; truthful and not be selfish nor betray others or myself! That's it! Simple!

I trust that not only will God provide a cherished sunset; God will never forget to provide a new spectacular sunrise.I will grow with every challenge.Life is what you make of it. God is looking out for me!

Silence of Paradise!

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No ,I am not crying; no; not really! There actually is a story; a ghost story behind it all and if you insist; we'll need to go back a little. Actually go back a lot; about 50 years.

I was in school and so was the witch.... alright we will call her Ghost and maintain decorum. Witch does not sound respectful and she is very easy on the eye as well. I saw the ghost in its human form for about five minutes while attending a marriage. Don't you get any funny ideas though! We hardly registered on each other's radars. Alright; alright, my radar blinked! I won't admit to anything more! No words were exchanged that day.

These memories have come flooding back because the other day I watched "Songs of Paradise". Lovely little gem of a movie  that tells the story of a legendary female singer of Kashmir- the land of my birth. Her Music has been recreated with great skill and taste . Of course it has been shot on real locations. There were those sights and sounds that reside in  all of us who hail from the place. Every street, every old house; the wooden bridge; the lake; my river, my people - everything resonated with me.  Every frame sang to me. It was an emotional roller-coaster that did transport me there and jolted the chords of  my memory.

Did I tell you I have a love/ hate relationship with the place! I do. I love everything there and I hate everything. It is because of all that I cherished and all that got denied to me! You think it is childish; but you are not me!

So this ghost did come across me a couple of more times over the years. What happened one night however was life changing. I had lost my most favourite person on earth a couple of days earlier to a road mishap. We were in deep mourning. Too many people in the house on the day that needed to sleep. So a lot of people crashed on a bedroom floor one night. Sometime during the night I felt a strange smooth warmth come over me. I was half awake, half asleep but I remember this clearly to this day. When I woke up in the morning everyone else had already gotten up and left the room. Just one person was sleeping squeezed between my mattress and the wall under a  warm cover. Only the face with unruly hair was visible. Lo and behold; It was the ghost in human form that sometime in the night found that corner to lay her head. Remember the warmth that enveloped me? It was their aura! That moment changed my life entirely. I fell head over heels for her, that exact instant. My feelings have not changed yet and most of my life has already been lived. I am not likely to fall out of it now! Not sure though if it is a blessing or a curse! Imagine finding a new begining while mourning a massive loss  !  Life is stranger than fiction. I would not  have believed it, but it happened to me.

This ghost soon became friendly; even in its human form. We interacted sporadically and became close. We shared some secrets; some jokes; lots of plans and happy times. We found we think alike and could finish each other's sentences. It was the best thing that ever happened to me.

Shortly ghost's human form became the very embodiment of every thing I like and everyone I like. My paradise! My Kashmir; all rolled into one person. Then one day  fate struck and the human form ran away. Hid herself in those very streets of Kashmir. Never to be found again. Never! You now realize why I hate what I love ! 

If you thought the story ended there, you would be far off the mark! It in fact started there! The ghost almost immediately returned to haunt me by taking over every cell in my body and  occupied most of my mind. I do not know how at the same time it manages to  make itself felt right behind my right shoulder also. It is inside me, outside me and around me. It does not go away. Not even for a second. It has remained there for four decades now. It is there when I am taking a shower. It is there right besides me in the car. It hears me curse other drivers on road. There it is while I take a walk. It is with me at the mall; at work; in a restaurant.... Sometimes it takes the shape of a stranger but vanishes somewhere when I go near it.

I used to get  seriously disturbed and annoyed. I wanted it to go away. I asked it to let me be; many times. I called it some very bad names to push it away. I told it how much I abhored it ! I told it to show up in the human form or get the hell lost ! Nothing ; nothing really affects this ghost. It does what it does; when it does!

 Eventually I learned to live with it after I moved cities to other corner of the world but found that the ghost is travelling with me two rows away! No, there is no getting away from this for me!

I asked myself, would I ever  have let go of it had this ghost come to me in it's human form?  It is quite complicated but the short answer is; never; no; not in a thousand years! So I have tried to have some interaction with the ghost for some years now. I tell the ghost everything that is happening with me. I ask its opinion on things. I have told a few jokes. We have had coffee together. Attended social gatherings; picnics; marriage receptions and parties. I seek Ghost's approval on my wardrobe. Don't you dare laugh!

The ghost does not speak to me. It never answers back  and it never shows up in a human form; but It has not left me yet. Ghost has kept up its ghosting.

 Of late though I do not feel  it over my right shoulder at times. It goes away suddenly and than it returns quickly. Maybe  it is going deeper inside me or maybe it is trying to leave me like it's human form did. Just when I have gotten used to it being a part of my life. 

I am no longer seeking to be free of this ghost. I do not abandon; not even my ghost! It is the only peace left to me anyway.

Dreams die. Some sooner than later. I was keeping some dreams locked, but they depended upon the ghost showing up in it's human form. That did not happen and it looks quite impossible now. So I have finally let those useless dreams leave through  the portal of my eyes. These are not tears.

It would not have hurt so much except that there is this silence on top of it.  This is so, so unbearably heavy!

Paradise has no songs for me; none! Only silence. My lost paradise is silent and I can not do a thing about it! 

I am not crying. I am not! These are my dreams finally saying good bye!

 

बातूनी!

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इक गुज़रे ज़माने में  कुछ था  जो वो था;

कुछ हुआ ही न होता तो क्या बात करते?

इस लंबी खामोशी ने जो दूरियां बढ़ा दी हैं;

मिलते तो आंखे कहती, और क्या बात करते?

कितने तुम्हारे राज़ इस दिल में दफन हैं;

सब कुछ भी गर बताते,तो क्या बात करते?

हर बात  बतानी थी, सुनते तुम्हारी हर पल ;

 सिलसिले सब तुमने तोड़े ; फिर क्या बात करते?

 

 है तुमसे ये छुपाया, इक ही है दोस्त अपना; 

उसने भी कब निभाया, फिर क्या बात करते?

किस आसानी से तुमने मुझको दिए हैं धोखे; 

हम ये ही भूल जाते तो क्या बात करते?

"खुश हो न तुम"; बस इतना सा पूछना था;

इतनी सी बात करते; फिर क्या बात करते?

 माला फेरने की उम्र में हम; जाने किस साल पे रुके हैं!

दुनिया के शोर ओ गुल में फिर क्या बात करते?

ऐसा कैसे !

La Femme Quite Pleure (The weeping woman) by Pablo Picasso

Oil on  canvas,  1937,  61x50 cm.     Tate Museum.

अब बची ही कितनी थी,जिंदगी घिसट रही थी जैसे कैसे।

निकल जाते खामोशी से, ये दरवाज़ा बेवक्त खटका कैसे?

हवा थी ये , फिर उसमें तुम्हारी खुशबू आई तो फिर आई कैसे?

जीना यूं ही मुश्किल था, अब मरे भी तो  मरे कैसे?

जाओ अपना कत्ल तुम्हे माफ किया, प्यार है, करता न कैसे?

 ये खुद को जो तुमने ज़ाया किया, उसकी माफी कभी न दूंगा। दूं भी कैसे?

आओ दिखाएं मुस्कुराती आंखों से जी भर भर कर रोते हैं कैसे?

रोम रोम में बसने वाले को पराई बाहों में देख   रोज़ चिता पर दहकते हैं कैसे?

हर पल जिनके के साथ था जीना , बिन उनके हम बूढ़े हुए तो कैसे? 

सिखाएं तुम्हे जादू;  टूटे वादे को सपनों में  फिर जोड़ते हैं कैसे?

देखो हर रोज़ जहर पी पी कर फिर से सासों को झेलते हैं कैसे?

उम्र भर के दगा का दाग हंसकर रोकर पालते हैं कैसे?

मेरी कोई चीख तुम तक पहुंची ही नहीं, तुम्हारा सिसकना मुझे दिखेगा कैसे?

ताउम्र मेरी हर बात अनसुनी रही,तुम्हारी चुप कहीं सुनेगी कैसे?

ये होगा कैसे; वो होगा कैसे; कुछ भी होगा क्या? पर होगा कैसे?