General I.K. Niazi !

Hope is a great catalyst. It has spurred gigantic efforts and decisive actions on part of the individuals as well as societies. It can be  a  heartless mirage too. Specially when one  relies only on hope without taking into account all the hard facts readily available for the asking. It goes without saying that one good deed has to be followed with another before great hopes can be transformed into great results.

Massive expectations have taken a hold of Pakistan after the recent Elections to the national assembly. Hope however is hanging in the air by the proverbial thread - one maverick named Imran Khan. Depending on the source of information you believe ;  he is currently elected or selected Prime Minister in waiting. Just for the record his party won the largest number of constituencies nationally but did not win a majority. He has 116 seats in a house of 272. I do not expect that to  be a hindrance though in the government forming. So he is going to be the PM in a week or so.

So let us look at the positives in this development. Firstly it is the second back to back transfer of power to a civilian government through ballot. Howsoever  faulty , non transparent and partial this process has been ; it is still creditable that an election took place in a country that has seen military dictatorships for the most part of its 70 odd years of existence.

It is a bit of a back handed compliment but despite an obvious doctoring of the pitch in favour of Imran; putting pressure on media to be selective in coverage ; leveraging  the judiciary to be selective in taking on the corruption of his rivals only and clear manipulation if not naked intimidation of voters ; all the charges levelled by other parties and  partly endorsed by independent international observers;  the electorate deserves kudos for managing to hand Imran a drawn match ! If that will not keep him on his toes , nothing will.

First past the post system of elections ensured that none of the most virulent of Islamic terrorist proxies like Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek were elected. That's good news! Although one has to realize that they have polled thousands of votes in pretty much every seat they contested and several of their ideological brothers contesting jointly on other party tickets like Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) have actually won over a dozen seats . That is food for a very serious thought. 

PML (N) did not get wiped out as was written in the pre poll script. Nawaz Sharief is not a spent force yet. Bilawal Bhutto came out of the shadows of his father and ran a creditable campaign ; although he has some ways to go .Don't  know if it is good but MQM has been emasculated and its meagre 6 seats reflect the divided fratricidal house it has become. PTI has given PML (N) a run for its money even in the Punjab assembly; running neck to neck.

What can we expect from Prime minister Khan ? To put first things first he has to cobble a majority in the assembly and will have to immediately start making deals and compromises to ensure that smaller parties and independents support him to reach the halfway mark of which he is 20 odd short.  That it can be achieved without forgoing some of the high principles;  platform he marketed himself from and bursting of some balloons of hope and change for good is not doubtful,it is impossible.

It is all about economy as they say. By all reckonings Pakistan's economic situation is far from robust. The new government will have to immediately find money- a lot of money. Some reports suggest US $ 3 billion  are required yesterday, just to repay first installment of their loan. They can default and sink deeper into the crisis making recovery more difficult or they can .... what can they do ? No body knows. Specially  having already made the grey list of FATF they are staring at a financial abyss. This will need Imran Khan's complete attention for a very long time.

Pakistan's honeymoon with US is over. Or is it ?  New PM has to deal with this relationship that has fractured along every possible fault line , mostly to Pakistan's disadvantage. Unfortunately for Imran he has made his position a little difficult to retrieve by using increasingly harsh and confrontationist language against US in general and president Trump in particular. He will need every diplomatic stratagem at his command to deal with this mess.  He has nothing to offer and pretty much zero bargaining chips at hand unless he wants to use the Afghanistan lever again. This strategy is fraught with so many dangers that it should not even be on the table; but you never know with Pakistan.

The much touted CPEC has been marketed as manna from heavens. Maybe it is as good as advertised however observers within Pakistan and outside have pointed out that currently it seems to be a one way street. Everything is flowing towards China; not unlike east India company of yore. A lot of projects are stalled; a lot are stopped and a lot are only on paper. Corruption; lack of funds and downright inefficiency is rampant. The social costs of CPEC are also going up. Recently there was a flare up where Chinese workers beat up local police for not being allowed to visit a whorehouse. Pakistani friends have expressed dismay in private conversations at the number of Chinese economic immigrants  streaming into their cities and neighbourhoods stretching and straining their social structure. CPEC will need a lot of careful handling. Is Imran quite up to it ?

Then there is that elephant in the room - India ! Not surprisingly a little hope blossomed in India too. After all Imran's cricketing credentials are potent aphrodisiacs ! A lot of people are not so convinced though. Having observed Imran Khan over the years and his conveniently evolving religiosity ; looking at how and what he accomplished in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during his party's tenure; and how he fought this election and who all fought in his corner; I am tilted towards his ex wife Reham Khan's assessment. He will say one thing if it serves his purpose but may carry out quite the opposite as per need. Sort of a reverse swing !

He could have avoided in his post poll address but he did not. The 'K' word that is ! He was addressing the Khaki generals actually not the people of Pakistan and definitely not India. Reminding them that he is their man and their interests are safe with him. What he actually meant was" please go provide firm guidance like only the Pakistan army can to some newly elected members  so they support me". India can afford to let it pass although it should be clear now that Imran has no plans ; no will  and no need to change anything with regards to India. He may mouth some feel good words from time to time but  he will not mean them . Status quo is his best friend to stay in the saddle and he is smart enough to know this.

Imran Ahmad Khan Niazi  will toe the military establishment's line is a given. I do not expect any miracle from him over the heads of GHQ Rawalpindi. My only fear is that given his proclivities ; his immodest righteousness and his  lofty sense of entitlement; he may try to out general  the general's themselves. And in that case he might do well to remember another Niazi . Lieutenant-general Amir Abdullah Khan Niazi who became governor of east Pakistan for two full days that ended rather ignominiously. 

Best wishes for a new Innings captain. Remember the world is watching and it is not convinced. Not yet!

आदत ! Aadat

Moon and Waves. Oil painting  60X 90 cms  by George Dmitriev 

ताका किये पूनम के चाँद को , रोटी समझ;

ठंडी  छाँव को फटी छतरी दिखाने  की आदत नहीं गयी।

बेबाक  तीरों से  अँधेरे चीरते रहे ;

सूरज को तीली  से डराने की आदत नहीं गयी। 

गैरों को हम मनाते कब अपनी मजाल थी ;

अल्लाह से रूठ जाने की आदत नहीं गयी। 

गुलशन में अपना कोई यूं भी हबीब था ;

काँटों को सर चढ़ाने की आदत नहीं गयी। 

तुम हमें भूल चुके हो । क्या ये मुमकिन है ?

बस तुम्हे अपना बताने की आदत नहीं गयी। 

सागर में डूबता , मैं कोई नशे में था ;

तूफ़ान से दिल लगाने की आदत नहीं गयी। 

जाने किस जुबां के हैं ये लफ्ज़ , प्यार औ वफ़ा ;

ताउम्र  पुश्त पे खंजर  की आदत नहीं गयी। 

अंधे पे राज़ फाश हो सब इश्क़ का यहाँ ;

बेफिक्र गुनगुनाने की आदत नहीं गयी। 

 इस उम्र में बदलेंगे , क्या लेते हैं जनाब ;

चुहल औ मज़ाक की आपकी आदत नहीं गयी। 

Roman Script follows:-

Taka kiye Poonam ke chand ko , roti samajh;

 Thandi chanv ko fati chatri dikhane ki aadat nahi gai.

Baybak teeron se andhere cheerte rahe ;

Suraj ko tili se darane ki aadat nahi gai.

Gairon  ko hum manate kub apni  majjal thi;

Allah se rooth jane ki aadat nahi gayi.

Gulshan me apne koi yoon bhi habib tha;

Kantoon ko sar chadane ki aadat nahi gayi.

Tum hame bhool chuke ho. kya ye mumkin hai ?

Bus Tumhe  apna batane ki aadat nahi gayi. 

Sagar me doobta , mai koi nashay me tha;

Toofan se dil lagane ki aadat nahi gayi .

Jaane kis juban ke hain ye lafz , pyar o  wafa ;

Ta umr pusht pe khanjar  ki aadat nahi gayi.

Andhe pe raaj faash ho sab ishq ka yahan;

Befikr gungunane ki aadat nahi gayi.

 Is umr me badlenge , kya lete hain jenab ;

Chuhal  O  Majaak ki aapki aadat nahi gayi.

ए साहिब ! Ay sahib

Death of Ophelia  by John Everett Millias

बेइंतहा  नफऱत थी जिससे , वो आदमी ;

बन गया हूँ मैं क्या से क्या आदमी !

किस तरफ ऊँगली उठाऊँ , किसको  तोहमत दूँ?

किससे  पूछें , बताएं  किसको  ज़हमत दूँ ?

ऐसे सवाल जिनका  सब जवाब मालूम होता है  ,

 कौन करता है ऐसे? दीवाना मालूम होता है ।

रात नींद भी आती है , दिन को चैन देखा।

यहीं तो थे सपने:  कि  वो भी सपना देखा।

गर्चे ग़ुमनाम सही , निपट अनजान नही हूँ।

 बिलकुल थक  चुका हूँ। बिलकुल चुका  नहीं हूँ।

आँखें धुंधली तो हैं; अक्ल कुम्हला गई है ; देखा?

सांसें उथली सी हैं; मरा नहीं  है अबतक ; देखा?

वो बेहिस्स सा है ; होंठ फिर बुदबुदा रहे हैं ;  देखा ?

कब तलक होश आएगा ? ए साहिब , ठीक से  देखा?

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शाम डल रही है , दिये जल उठे हैं , सुबह भी आ जाएगी।

भैंसे की घंटी सुन , बाल पक चुके हैं , अक्ल भी आ जाएगी।

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खेल रहे जीवन  की बाज़ी  अपनी किस्मत की बिसात पर।

रोयें कबतक ? सो हँसते हैं, अपनी शह पे , अपनी मात पर।

 In Roman Script :-

beinteha nafrat thi jisse , vo aadmi ;

ban gaya hoon may kya se kya aadmi !

kis taraf ungli uthaon , kisko tohmat doon?

kisse poochen , batayen kisko zahmat doon ?

Aise sawal jinke sab jawab maloom hota hai ,

 kaun karta hai Aise? deewana maloom hota hai .

Raat neend bhi aati hai , Din ko chain dekha.

Yahin to the sapne:  Ki vo bhi sapna dekha.

Garche gumnam sahi , Nipat anjaan nahi hoon।. 

 Bilkul thak chukka hoon.  Bilkul Chukka  nahi hoon.

Aakhen dhundhli to hain; akql kumlah gayi hai ; Dekha?

Sansen uthlee si hain; mara nahi hai  abtak ; Dekha?

Vo behiss sa hai ; Hoonth fir budbuda rahe hain ; Dekha ?

Kb talak hosh aayega?  , Ay sahib Theek se Dekha?

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Shaam dal rahi hai , diye jal uthe hain, subah bhi aa jayegi.

Bhansey ki ghanti sun , baal pak chuke hain , akl bhi aa jayegi. 

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Khel rahe jeevan ki baazi apni kismet ki bisat per. 

Royen kabtak ? So hanste hain apni shah pe, apni mat per. 

सज़ा !

ये सज़ा कुछ कम हुई क्या उस बेवफाई की ?

उम्र गुज़ारी शौक़ से तुमने ; लेकिन  गुज़री  मेरे बिन !

दिन खुश रेशम , मख़मल रातें , ऑंखें भर रंगीन ख्वाब ;

जीने का सारा सामान था ; जीना फिर भी मेरे बिन !

प्यारी बातेँ , मीठे बोल , गीले बोसे , गर्म आग़ोश ;

यादों का आना मुश्किल था .  कैसे वादे?  भूल थी भूल !

नीलकंठ  बन   हम भी  जी गए ; गज़ब ढीठ निकले  !

अरे  जिंदगी की शाम हो गयी ! कैसी बीती मेरे बिन ? 

Roman script follows :-

ye saza kuch km hui kya us bewafai ki?

Umr guzari shauk se tumne; lekin guzri mere bin!

Din khush Resham, makhmal raten, ankhen bhar rangeen khawab;

Jeene ka sara saman tha; jeena fir bhi mere bin !

Pyari batein , meethe bol, geele bosey, grm aagosh;

yadon ka aana mushqil tha. Kaise Vaade  ? bhool thi bhool.

Neelkanth bn hum bhi jee gaye; gazab deeth nikle !

Arre jindgi ki sham ho gayi ! kaisi beeti mere bin ?

Fat Man! Little Boy!

August is a  very happening month and not only because I was born during the month ! Actually most opinions agree that August 6, in the year 1945 is the day the world changed forever! Well we all know USA used an atomic device on that day . " Little Boy" , was dropped on Hiroshima, Japan. And just three days later on 9th August "Fat Man" was detonated over Nagasaki city. Estimates vary and depending on who you believe between 80,000 to 120,000 lives were lost instantly. Both cities were turned to rubble. Another 50,000 to 100,000 victims died later as a result of the these nuclear attacks. This signal event ended the second world war decisively and has  largely shaped political, geographical and international contours of our world today.

August came early this year not quite far from the Japanese shores; in Sentosa island. A resort island off the southern coast of Singapore. Actually it is connected to the city by road , cable car, monorail and even a pedestrian boardwalk. Yet another big bang happened here on June 12 , 2018. There was a lot of uncertainty and Yes - no ; go- no go for a while but a "Fat man & a Little Boy " did manage to drop in once again. Exactly on Capella resort! Luckily no one exploded. Korean fat man; president for life Kim Jong-Un and the American brattish little boy; president Trump shook hands in a bid to avoid nuclear tipped rockets flying  over the Korean peninsula. Seems like the world has averted this catastrophe for now! This whole event was high on drama, sound bites and optics and might prove to be as historical as the events in 1945. A little bit to the west of Singapore things were not so dramatic !

In fact every effort was made to keep things as close to the chest as possible. It was hilarious but will prove historical in the long run. The deadly combination of "little boy and Fat man" exploded over Pakistan. They were more potent than a nuclear device! In fact they were Book Bombs !

Lieutenant General Mohammad Asad Durrani is a retired chief of the notorious spy agency of Pakistan- ISI . In a prime example of life being stranger than fiction, he somehow has gotten friendly with Amarjit Dulat . Ex chief of ISI's biggest rival - Indian Spy Agency RAW! Maybe it is their Punjabi connections, maybe their track 2 interactions but they have hit it off and are drinking buddies in their retirement. They have written a book together : The Spy Chronicles: RAW, ISI and the Illusion of Peace  .

Everything has exploded in the Pakistani security establishment. They were livid at their such an  errant "little boy"   !  Having read the book I can safely conclude that no state secrets were divulged by Durrani. All he seems to have said has been said before and most of the campaign generalities he talks about is common knowledge. What seems to have  touched a raw nerve is the fact that he is  gunning for peace between India and Pakistan. Definitely not an operating philosophy for the Pakistan establishment. Most damning in my opinion is his belief that Pakistan was not made for ever ! This one is huge ; specially coming from a three star general and their chief spy albeit retired. He has laid bare chinks in their armour, the one's we could all see anyway. Last we heard he is going to face a court of inquiry. In a secretive Pakistan we will know of the outcome when we will. Maybe never !

Even as the din from the first explosion was abating, along came the second. More powerful; really a "Fat Man"! The thing is that at the time of writing the book was unpublished as yet. Reham Khan's autobiography . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GRxgs9XyGM

What seems to have got everyone's goat is the fact that she broke the news at an Indian Channel. A crime in itself. But the bigger issue is the fact that she directly indicts establishment's blue eyed boy Imran Khan : her ex husband;of being in collusion with forces sympathetic to Taliban who changes his views and statements to suit his audiences.  Anything to grab power.She raises a big red flag for the voters to vote with caution lest Imran manages to grab power and lead Pakistan into an  intractable abyss.

Having tied up Nawaz Sharif in all kinds of tangles, some of  his own making; the field is clear for Imran. All he has to do is to show up on the election day  but for this impertinent women who dares to speak!! Everyone and their mother is hell bent on tarnishing the reputation of the author as a person; as a  mother; as a wife; as a women; as a Pakistani; as a Muslim and even as a journalist. Nobody has read the book! This book if and when it comes out may change the outcome of this election and the course of history. The only ray of hope for the establishment is the fact that nobody reads; especially a common voter in Pakistan. And the book is in English, a language in my personal experience even fairly educated in Pakistan are not very comfortable with.

The thing though is that with so many voices trying to shout her down and shut her up in itself proves that she is surely worth listening to.  Personally I believe she has a very crucial point about Imran khan. As Reham was married to him for a year (10 months according to Imran) she validates my assessment of Imran not being trustworthy. We will have to wait till 25th July to see if August has arrived !

Importance of being Manjoor Pashteen !

Early this year in January a rather dapper looking Pashtun shopkeeper Naqeebullah  Mehsud  got shot to death in Karachi. Nothing out of ordinary! Just another day in office for the establishment's blue eyed boy SSP Rao Anwar of the Sindh police. He would most likely have received a medal and promotion for this  kill but for the fact that the dead man was an innocent whose entire list of crimes consisted of having a wrong name and being at the wrong place at the wrong time. This also would have been ignored but there was another young man who just would not let that happen- a veterinary doctor named Manjoor Pashteen. 

He had earlier midwifed now famous Pashtun Tahafuz Movement in 2014 to champion the rights of his people, specially the right to live. Common wisdom conservatively puts the number of disappearances and extra judicial killings in Pakistan in hundreds if not thousands and they have continued to rise over the years. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) recorded 338 executions in police encounters in 2010, an alarming 50% increase from the 226 executions that took place in 2009. Investigations were launched only in 25 of the 338 cases, following protests by families of the victims.  

http://hrcp-web.org/hrcpweb/wp-content/pdf/ff/10.pdf 

So Manjoor has been successful in garnering  nation wide support and in organising large demonstrations and protest demanding justice in this case. Establishment typically at first shielded the culprit ,helping him disappear.  Hoping for the movement to die down. That did not happen and the PTM gained speed. At the same time they also moved in from the left flank and unleashed their stooges in the media that on one hand declared Manjoor variously to be a foreign spy working for NDS; a RAW agent; a CIA plant and a Khwarij ( apostate). On the other hand they  blacked him out by providing zero coverage in the mainstream media.

Unfortunately for them PTM  gathered steam despite all of these counter measures and is now being treated a serious threat to the State itself. 

There are several regional ; religious; ethnic and linguistic groups and subgroups in the area that became Pakistan in 1947. Broadly speaking they were Punjabi; Sindhi ; Baloch; Pathan; Muhajir ( immigrants from the rest of India) and the biggest group of them all - Bengali ! Well in the only such instance in the history of the world numerical majority left the federation of Pakistan after a bloody battle; citing injustice ; discrimination and repression. It is now a new country called Bangladesh.

Muhajir community has constantly and loudly complained of the same repression, disappearances, extra judicial killings  and at various forums regretted being part of Pakistan. For now the establishment has succeeded in dividing their Movement but for how long is a question?

Jiye Sindh movement has not died , just gone underground. Same litany of woes as above. So that brings us to Balochistan! Needless to say it is a very sore point with Pakistan. Their Achilles heel so to say. To put it mildly Baloch have had it , period! They are all packed and ready to walk out right at this very moment and give Pakistan a death blow.

That leaves Punjabi, considered the core of the establishment and Pathan/Pakhtun communities. Is Manjoor Pashteen important? You bet he is. Even if one disregards  Pakhtun community's Afghan connections ; he is the only one standing between Pakistan's fig leaf of fighting terrorism and exposing them as a state that has used terrorism as a state policy within and outside. A discredited cabal that chooses to imprison Shakil Afridi instead of rewarding him for  helping neutralize Bin Laden is on a very shaky ground. Manjoor Pashteen maybe the very last straw.

Laundry List !

Canada provides a unique perspective to see rest of the world and its happenings. It is the America which is not! Obviously being just north of the USA has its pros and cons. Jury is still out to decide which is more numerous. Guess they frequently change the top position depending on the issue at hand and party at the helm of their respective governments.

Much as everyone dismisses Canada as the 51^st province of the US; it certainly is not. Although there are massive similarities in the character, thoughts, beliefs, processes, systems and the people. Sometimes a mirror image of each other, most times a reflection. There is a shared history, shared peaceful open border as well as rather a long laundry list of contentious disputes between the two. Both in terms of Trade as well as politics.

From this vantage point it is obvious that despite the end of the cold war and the sad demise of the Soviet Union it is quite not such a unipolar world as America would have liked it. Challenges abound. Newer, vigorous and markedly virulent threats question them regularly. 

US can safely blame the duo of Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon for letting the China genie out of the bottle. It probably was a smart thing to do at the time. US needed someone to lick its Vietnam wounds and China needed someone to help loosen the Russian bear hug. One less Soviet friend suited US as well so …. Today an eagerly expansionist Communist China is providing the stiffest challenge; at times acting surreptitiously, suspiciously and ominously.  US currently owes China about a trillion dollars. Some fiscal experts say it is a problem for China, some say it is a problem for the US. However, all agree that it is a massive problem and a huge lever.

Many moons ago US went willingly into the quagmire of Afghanistan to stop Soviet Russia’s access to the Indian Ocean. Today it is faced with the spectre of a communist China right on the mouth of Indian Ocean in Gwadar Port, Baluchistan.

As if it was not enough there is that throbbing pain on the other side of their head called North Korea. Kim may be a megalomaniac that needs to keep up his boasts, but I really doubt if he is foolish enough to let ballistic missiles fly over the Korean peninsula.  He certainly will remain an imminent danger to Japan and South Korea and keep threatening the US. Then there is China. Again! A lot of Kim’s bluster and capabilities stem from the support it receives from China. The sole major nation to do so.

It serves certain quarters to propagate the myth that Afghan’s can’t be defeated.  Anybody can be and so can they. Their History is proof enough.  It is an ancient land that has been inhabited for thousands of years. Arabs invaded them a little more than thousand years ago. Their entire society and ruling kingdoms capitulated. Now it is not my proposition that they should be defeated but the false self-serving narrative mostly touted by the Pakistani establishment needs to be countered. It essentially is a smoke screen to hide their keystone role in keeping the pot boiling. Ironically US paid Pakistan handsomely to execute this diabolical plan against itself!

Who other than China supports Pakistan in this endeavour? And really guess how North Korea got its nuclear capabilities? If you guessed Pakistan; you are right. Remember Father of the Islamic bomb; A. Q. Khan was running a nuclear Walmart under the watchful eyes of ISI!

It is rather easy to connect these dots. There are several other issues at hand like Saudi Arab’s penchant for promoting Wahhabism. Its rivalry with Shia Iran and the attendant fallout in the middle east. Mexican immigrants; Colombian drug cartel etc. Good lord! at the time of writing the whole US government was shut down because of funding issues.

 Talk about problems! US has got aplenty. Someone the other day said that the biggest problem they have is ‘Trump’! Now if he has seen through Pakistan’s game in Afghanistan; he is not such a dolt! Is he now? Only thing I am confused about is that if  this is the beginning of the end; the end of the beginning or the beginning of a beginning?